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If you’re one of the over 60% of bettors who took the Eagles -10 last night, I’d imagine the last thing you’d like to read today is a blog telling you to bet the Eagles. Well, sorry.
Philly’s unimpressive victory on Monday night, along with wins by the Vikings, Rams, and Saints, has pushed the Eagles’ Super Bowl odds back to +1200, and has made them perhaps the only team with Super Bowl value.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Predictions, the Eagles, who now own home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, have a 19% chance to win Super Bowl LII. Their +1200 odds, however, imply only a 7.7% chance, making them the only team listed with a higher “true” probability than implied probability.
Here’s how the rest of the league stands following the penultimate week of the regular season.
| Team | Westgate (12/26) | Westgate (12/18) | Westgate (12/11) | Westgate (12/4) | Westgate (11/27) | Westgate (11/20) | Westgate (11/13) | Westgate (11/7) | Westgate (10/31) | Westgate (10/24) | Westgate (10/17) | Westgate (10/10) | Westgate (10/3) | Westgate (9/26) | Westgate (9/19) | Westgate (9/12) | Westgate (9/7) | BetOnline (7/15) | Westgate (3/6) | Westgate (1/10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | +180 | +150 | +200 | +200 | +220 | +225 | +300 | +350 | +350 | +350 | +400 | +450 | +500 | +400 | +350 | +400 | +275 | +325 | +450 | +600 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +400 | +600 | +800 | +600 | +800 | +1000 | +1400 | +1000 | +1200 | +1200 | +1600 | +4000 | +4000 | +2500 | +3000 | +2500 | +4000 | +3600 | +2000 | +2500 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +450 | +450 | +350 | +350 | +350 | +350 | +400 | +400 | +400 | +450 | +500 | +700 | +450 | +700 | +700 | +600 | +900 | +1200 | +1000 | +1000 |
| New Orleans Saints | +700 | +1000 | +800 | +1200 | +1600 | +1000 | +600 | +1000 | +1200 | +1400 | +2000 | +4000 | +4000 | +8000 | +10000 | +5000 | +2500 | +5000 | +6000 | +8000 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +900 | +1200 | +1200 | +1400 | +1400 | +1600 | +1200 | +1600 | +2000 | +1800 | +4000 | +8000 | +5000 | +6000 | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +15000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +1200 | +1000 | +1200 | +600 | +400 | +350 | +450 | +400 | +600 | +700 | +800 | +1600 | +2000 | +3000 | +3000 | +3000 | +4000 | +5000 | +5000 | +6000 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +1200 | +1200 | +1400 | +2500 | +3000 | +2000 | +2500 | +3500 | +5000 | +6000 | +10000 | +5000 | +10000 | +8000 | +10000 | +6000 | +10000 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Carolina Panthers | +1800 | +2000 | +2000 | +3000 | +1600 | +2500 | +3000 | +2500 | +2500 | +3000 | +2000 | +1400 | +3000 | +5000 | +2000 | +2000 | +3000 | +2800 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2500 | +2500 | +3000 | +4000 | +2500 | +1600 | +1000 | +1000 | +600 | +800 | +600 | +600 | +900 | +1000 | +1400 | +1600 | +3000 | +2500 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +2500 | +4000 | +4000 | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 | +50000 | +20000 | +10000 | +20000 | +10000 | +8000 | +10000 | +4000 | +2500 | +4000 | +5000 | +4000 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +3000 | +1400 | +1400 | +2000 | +1600 | +3000 | +2500 | +3000 | +1800 | +1400 | +900 | +800 | +800 | +600 | +700 | +1200 | +1600 | +1000 | +1200 | +1600 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +4000 | +6000 | +1800 | +1200 | +2000 | +2000 | +1400 | +1200 | +800 | +1000 | +900 | +1000 | +1000 | +1200 | +1000 | +1000 | +800 | +1000 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +6000 | +3000 | +1800 | +2500 | +2500 | +10000 | +20000 | +10000 | +10000 | +6000 | +8000 | +30000 | +50000 | +20000 | +10000 | +6000 | +6000 | +4500 | +6000 | +8000 |
| Tennessee Titans | +8000 | +10000 | +8000 | +4000 | +3000 | +4000 | +3000 | +3000 | +4000 | +4000 | +3500 | +5000 | +3000 | +2000 | +3000 | +4000 | +2000 | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
| Buffalo Bills | +20000 | +10000 | +30000 | +50000 | +30000 | +50000 | +20000 | +10000 | +5000 | +6000 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +20000 | +30000 | +20000 | +20000 | +10000 | +8000 | +8000 |
| Dallas Cowboys | N/A | +6000 | +8000 | +8000 | +20000 | +6000 | +3000 | +1600 | +2000 | +2000 | +2500 | +2000 | +1600 | +800 | +1000 | +800 | +1200 | +900 | +800 | +1000 |
| Green Bay Packers | N/A | +10000 | +4000 | +4000 | +20000 | +10000 | +8000 | +10000 | +8000 | +6000 | +3000 | +500 | +600 | +800 | +1000 | +700 | +800 | +850 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Detroit Lions | N/A | +20000 | +20000 | +100000 | +10000 | +3000 | +5000 | +6000 | +10000 | +5000 | +5000 | +4000 | +2500 | +3000 | +4000 | +8000 | +10000 | +5000 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Oakland Raiders | N/A | N/A | +8000 | +4000 | +3500 | +8000 | +4000 | +3000 | +10000 | +2500 | +4000 | +3000 | +2000 | +1000 | +800 | +700 | +800 | +1100 | +1200 | +2000 |
| Miami Dolphins | N/A | N/A | +200000 | +200000 | +500000 | +100000 | +30000 | +30000 | +30000 | +10000 | +10000 | +20000 | +20000 | +10000 | +8000 | +10000 | +10000 | +6600 | +3000 | +4000 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | N/A | N/A | N/A | +30000 | +30000 | +30000 | +100000 | +30000 | +8000 | +10000 | +8000 | +8000 | +20000 | +30000 | +20000 | +10000 | +8000 | +6600 | +4000 | +5000 |
| Washington Redskins | N/A | N/A | N/A | +200000 | +30000 | +30000 | +30000 | +10000 | +20000 | +8000 | +5000 | +8000 | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +20000 | +10000 | +6600 | +4000 | +5000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | N/A | N/A | N/A | +200000 | +30000 | +100000 | +50000 | +20000 | +30000 | +30000 | +10000 | +20000 | +8000 | +10000 | +6000 | +5000 | +5000 | +3600 | +2000 | +2500 |
| New York Jets | N/A | N/A | N/A | +200000 | +200000 | +100000 | +100000 | +30000 | +100000 | +50000 | +30000 | +30000 | +50000 | +100000 | +999900 | +200000 | +100000 | +50000 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Houston Texans | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +100000 | +30000 | +30000 | +10000 | +4000 | +4000 | +3500 | +4000 | +2500 | +3500 | +8000 | +10000 | +4000 | +1800 | +4000 | +6000 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +500000 | +100000 | +50000 | +100000 | +20000 | +8000 | +8000 | +4000 | +3000 | +4000 | +3000 | +4000 | +4000 | +3300 | +3000 | +4000 |
| Denver Broncos | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +100000 | +50000 | +20000 | +8000 | +3000 | +2800 | +1400 | +1400 | +2000 | +2000 | +4000 | +4000 | +2500 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Chicago Bears | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +200000 | +50000 | +20000 | +20000 | +10000 | +20000 | +50000 | +50000 | +10000 | +50000 | +10000 | +10000 | +17500 | +10000 | +10000 |
| Indianapolis Colts | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +200000 | +200000 | +100000 | +100000 | +50000 | +10000 | +10000 | +20000 | +20000 | +50000 | +20000 | +10000 | +4000 | +2500 | +2500 |
| New York Giants | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +999900 | +50000 | +50000 | +20000 | +30000 | +10000 | +8000 | +3000 | +2000 | +1200 | +1600 | +2000 | +2500 |
| Cleveland Browns | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +999900 | +999900 | +999900 | +999900 | +999900 | +200000 | +50000 | +50000 | +30000 | +10000 | +25000 | +30000 | +30000 |
| San Francisco 49ers | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +999900 | +200000 | +200000 | +100000 | +50000 | +20000 | +50000 | +50000 | +10000 | +30000 | +30000 | +30000 |
Despite a 21-point win on Sunday, the Patriots’ odds fell slightly from +150 to +180. If you’re late to the Pats train and still want some action on New England this postseason, I’ve got to imagine, assuming a home win against the Jets next week, this is the best price you’ll see for the rest of the year.
Over the past two weeks, Minnesota has established themselves as the NFC favorite. The Vikings control their own destiny in regards to a first round bye and will have home field advantage in the big game should they reach it. At +400, they’ve surpassed Pittsburgh’s odds, marking the first time in a month that the Steelers are not the first team listed behind New England.
Thinking about taking a long shot? You might be curious what previous Super Bowl winners’ odds were entering Week 17. Here they are dating back to 2010, courtesy of SportsOddsHistory.com:
- 2016 Patriots: +140
- 2015 Broncos: +800
- 2014 Patriots: +250
- 2013 Seahawks: +250
- 2012 Ravens: +2000
- 2011 Giants: +3300
- 2010 Packers: +1200
Are we due for another dark horse winner this February? Let us know what you think by replying on Twitter to @SportsInsights or @ActionNetworkHQ.
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