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Welcome to Week 17 …
OK, that statement may be true to many people, but not to us! The points always matter, regardless of how many practice-squad players are on the field. Some of you may be considering taking this week off, but there is still value to be had on this unpredictable slate and we breakdown every game in detail below.
A wise man once said, “Volatility is a degenerate’s best friend.” That man was me, and I just made it up. — Mark Gallant
If there’s a specific matchup you want to jump to, click the quick links below. All info is as of Friday morning. For live spreads and bet percentages, check out this page. To get access to our premium tools, subscribe here.
COWBOYS (-3) AT EAGLES | O/U: 39.5
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Betting market: Philadelphia opened as 2-point favorites, but the line has flipped to Dallas -3 with the expectation that the Eagles may rest players after locking up home-field advantage through the playoffs. Public money is also favoring the Cowboys, with the vast majority of the spread tickets laying the points (see chart below). — PJ Walsh
Trend to know: Cowboys are the second-least profitable team in our database as favorites against division rivals since 2003, compiling a 20-32-3 ATS record (-$1,353 for a $100 bettor). — John Ewing
Did you know? Nick Foles has lost seven consecutive games against the spread as a starter. His teams have failed to cover the number by 10.3 points per game in that span. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Play Eagles +3. In what should be difficult conditions for QBs (14 mph winds), I’ll take the top-five rush defense in DVOA over the 22nd-ranked unit. I don’t see how the Cowboys show up after having their season end last week. Their passing game is a mess, and the Eagles’ defensive ends should have a field day whenever Dak Prescott drops back, especially if LT Tyron Smith is hobbled or sits. Eagles coach Doug Pederson hinted at having his starters play, but Philly should be motivated regardless playing at home against their divisional rival. — Stuckey
PACKERS AT LIONS (-6) | O/U: 43
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Injury watch: The Lions offensive line collapsed last week without C Travis Swanson (concussion, questionable), G T.J. Lang (foot, questionable), and RT Ricky Wagner (ankle, questionable), although TE Eric Ebron’s early-week absence at practice (knee, questionable) is at least thought to be precautionary. Ebron will look to take advantage of a depleted Packers defense that could be without CB Damarious Randall (knee, questionable), OLB Nick Perry (ankle, questionable), and OLB Clay Matthews (hamstring, questionable). The Packers offense isn’t much healthier, as RT Jason Spriggs (knee, out), WR Jordy Nelson (shoulder, questionable), WR Davante Adams (concussion, questionable), and RB Aaron Jones are all not expected to suit up Sunday. — Ian Hartitz
Trend to know: Matthew Stafford is 23-33-1 ATS after a straight-up loss, making him the second-least profitable quarterback in this spot since 2003. Only Jay Cutler (of course) has been worse. — John Ewing
DFS edge: Marvin Jones has made a habit of balling out against the Packers since joining the Lions, converting his 28 targets into an 18-388-4 line in three games. He’s again set up well versus the league’s 31st overall defense in DVOA, as the Packers rank among the bottom-six units in touchdown passes, Plus/Minus, and average DraftKings PPG allowed to opposing wide receivers this season. Jones offers weekly big-play upside thanks to his status as the Lions’ leader in targets inside the red-zone and on deep-balls (20-plus yards). — Ian Hartitz
Pass or play? Pass. I don’t think the Lions show up, but not even sure who is left on this Packers roster to get the job done. Hundley should at least have success running the ball, as Detroit has struggled containing mobile QBs this year. — Stuckey
BROWNS AT STEELERS (-10) | O/U: 38
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Betting market: The public is unsurprisingly backing the Steelers (see chart below), but the money is all over the Browns, moving the line from +14 down to +10. It looks like sharps are giving Cleveland one final go for the 2017 season. — PJ Walsh
Trends to know: Hue Jackson has been bad as Browns coach. How bad? His 7-24 ATS record has lost bettors $1,742 in total (based on $100 wagers). The next-closest coach in that span is Bruce Arians, who has cost bettors $840, not even half the amount. But the wiseguys are ignoring their tortured history with Jackson and betting Cleveland anyway. Perhaps one reason why? Double-digit underdogs in division games are 108-80-5 (57.4%) ATS since 2003. — Evan Abrams and John Ewing
What the metrics say: Believe it or not, Cleveland ranks ninth overall in rushing DVOA. On a day when windy weather is expected to make it tough to throw (14 mph winds at kickoff), the Browns should have success against a Steelers rush defense that’s deteriorating without Ryan Shazier (allowing 6.5 yards per carry the past three games). Cleveland’s third-ranked rush defense in DVOA matches up well against Le’Veon Bell, who may not even play. Mike Tomlin hinted that he will sit his starters, which I imagine he’ll do once New England has a large enough lead at home over the Jets. A Patriots win locks the Steelers into the No. 2 seed. — Stuckey
DFS edge: Over his past two games, Vance McDonald has averaged running more routes than he has in any other game this year, turning 11 targets into eight receptions and 104 yards. Last week, the Steelers used Jesse James primarily as a blocker, running only four routes. As the new primary pass-catching tight end, McDonald has a great matchup against the Browns, who rank dead last in pass DVOA against tight ends and have allowed a league-high 33 touchdowns to the position since 2015. — Matthew Freedman
Pass or play? Play Browns +10 (reluctantly, as usual). Cleveland should be motivated to avoid 0-16 and the Steelers shouldn’t be too interested, which means the Browns will blow a cover in the final minutes one last time this season. — Stuckey
REDSKINS (-3) AT GIANTS | O/U: 39.5
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Betting market: This line opened at -3 and overwhelming public support pushed it up to -3.5. That’s when the pros chimed in, steaming it back down to -3, where it has settled. This is looking like one of the biggest sharps vs. squares disagreements of the week. — Scott T. Miller
Weather report: Winds of 13+ mph and sub-20-degree temperatures are expected at kickoff, according to our weather data (as of Thursday evening). This is one of the lowest totals of the week (39.5), and the public is taking the over at a 2:1 clip, despite the windy forecast. — Scott T. Miller
Injury watch: As if the Giants haven’t had enough injuries at receiver this season, WR Tavarres King (concussion, questionable), WR Sterling Shepard (neck, questionable), and TE Evan Engram (ribs, questionable) are far from guaranteed to suit up Sunday. The defensive side of the ball isn’t pretty for either team, as the Giants have placed LB B.J. Goodson (ankle, out) and S Landon Collins (forearm, out) on IR, while the Redskins could be without DT Ziggy Hood (elbow, out), LB Zach Brown (foot, out), and LB Ryan Anderson (knee, questionable). — Ian Hartitz
Did you know? This marks the first time in Eli Manning’s career that he’s not favored to beat Washington at home. In the 12 prior meetings, Manning is 7-4-1 ATS. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Pass. — Stuckey
JETS AT PATRIOTS (-15) | O/U: 43.5
1 p.m. ET | CBS
DFS edge: After throwing just two interceptions in his first 10 games of the season, Tom Brady has now thrown six over the past five games — and he hasn’t thrown for 300 yards in any contest during that span. He’s the MVP frontrunner, but Brady hasn’t been a positive Plus/Minus player for a while: He’s failed to hit salary-based expectations in eight of his past 11 games, and his struggles aren’t unexpected. Four of his past five games were against divisional opponents, and as Brady has aged, he’s underperformed in the second half of the season against teams familiar with him. Since 2011, he’s averaged 20.9 fantasy PPG against the AFC East after Week 9 and 26.0 against all other opponents. The Patriots have the slate’s highest passing points expectation, and Brady leads all quarterbacks with six Pro Trends on DraftKings, but he has underappreciated risk against a divisional opponent. — Matthew Freedman
Injury watch: The Patriots’ depleted running back room is setting up Dion Lewis for a large workload, as Mike Gillislee (knee, questionable), James White (ankle, questionable), and Rex Burkhead (knee, questionable) are all looking iffy to suit up Sunday. Brady’s early-week absence at practice (Achilles/left shoulder, probable) won’t stop him from playing Sunday, and he’ll benefit from facing a Jets front seven that could be without DE Leonard Williams (back, questionable) along with DT Mo Wilkerson (coach’s decision, questionable). The Patriots are expected to again be without 6-foot-6, 325-pound DT Alan Branch (knee, doubtful). But the Jets offense plenty of questions of its own: TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (ribs/foot, questionable), RB Matt Forte (knee, probable), WR Jermaine Kearse (ankle, probable) and WR Robby Anderson (illness, probable) have all missed practice this week. — Ian Hartitz
Pass or play: Pass. Stuckey
BEARS AT VIKINGS (-11) | O/U: 39
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Betting market: This matchup illustrates the importance of monitoring ticket splits, along with the percentage of actual dollars, to understand why a line has moved. The Vikings opened as 12.5-point favorites and are receiving two-thirds of the total number of wagers. But with the chance that the Vikings may still rest some players, the majority of the dollars wagered are on the Bears, which pushed the down to -11. PJ Walsh
Trend to know: Minnesota won its previous game 16-0 vs. Green Bay. Double-digit favorites coming off a win by 10 or more points have gone 67-89-5 (42.9%) ATS vs. division opponents since 2003. — John Ewing
Pass or play? Pass. — Stuckey
TEXANS AT COLTS (-5.5) | O/U: 40
DFS edge: Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton are coming off a brutal four-game stretch against the Ravens, Jaguars, Broncos, and Bills (in a blizzard). Both couldn’t ask for a better get-right spot at home against a Texans defense that ranks dead last in points allowed and 40-plus-yard receptions allowed. Houston has been absolutely gashed by slot receivers this season: Larry Fitzgerald (9-91-1), Keelan Cole (7-186-1), Doug Baldwin (6-54-0), Cooper Kupp (6-47-0), and Juju Smith-Schuster (6-75-1). Hilton torched the Texans for 175 yards and two touchdowns back in Week 9, and his salary on DraftKings has dropped by $800 since the aforementioned miserable four-game stretch. — Ian Hartitz
Trend to know: Teams off a blowout loss (20 or more points) have gone 399-336-17 (54.3%) ATS since 2003. If the team is an underdog with little public support (<50% of bets), the ATS record improves to 239-188-12 (56%) ATS. Both filters apply to the Texans, who are coming off a 34-6 home loss to Pittsburgh and are getting just 30% of the betting tickets. — John Ewing
Pass or play: Pass. Ian mentioned Hilton’s juicy matchup above, but don’t forget about DeAndre Hopkins. He should also have a big day against the Colts’ 31st-ranked pass defense in DVOA.
PANTHERS AT FALCONS (-4) | O/U: 45
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Betting market: This game is very interesting, not only because it’s one of the few Week 17 contests that involves two teams with something to play for, but because the line has moved from Falcons -3 up to -4, despite no sharp money to speak of. Don’t be surprised to see this as a setup for big Carolina buyback later in the week. — PJ Walsh
Trend to know: The Falcons need a win to get into the playoffs. Since 2003, home teams in must-win games (Weeks 15-17) have gone 84-116-5 (42%) ATS. — John Ewing
DFS edge: Julio Jones’ 7-149-0 line against the Saints last week was one of his finest performances of the season, given that the majority of his production came against stud rookie Marshon Lattimore, PFF’s No. 5 overall corner. Ability has never been the question for the league’s most physically gifted receiver, and it’s hard to be anything but ecstatic about his workload. Jones ranks among the league’s top-five receivers in overall targets, targets inside the 10-yard line, and passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield. Next up is a matchup against a Panthers defense that hasn’t exactly slowed Jones down since it lost No. 1 corner Josh Norman last season. The WR has posted 6-118-0, 12-300-1, and 4-60-0 lines on Carolina since the beginning of 2016, regularly beating both James Bradberry and Daryl Worley — PFF’s 105th- and 89th-highest graded cornerbacks this season, respectively. — Ian Hartitz
Did you know? Cam Newton is 5-1 straight up in his past six games up as an underdog. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Pass. — Stuckey
49ERS (-3.5) AT RAMS | O/U: 44
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
Betting market: Not only is Jimmy Garoppolo on a four-game winning streak (insert Pats fan panic here), but the 49ers are among the most public sides of Week 17. This matchup is also generating the largest number of tickets. Suffice it to say, the books are going to be huge Rams fans on Sunday (see chart below). — PJ Walsh
Injury watch: Rams head coach Sean McVay has already revealed that RB Todd Gurley, QB Jared Goff and LT Andrew Whitworth will rest Sunday with the No. 1 and 2 seeds out of reach. Backup QB Sean Mannion and RB Malcolm Brown will starts, and the offense could also be without WR Cooper Kupp (knee, questionable). The Rams will face a streaking 49ers team that could be without defensive difference-makers LB Reuben Foster (stinger, questionable) and S Adrian Colbert (shoulder, questionable). Jimmy Garoppolo’s top weapons — WR Marquise Goodwin (back, questionable), WR Trent Taylor (shoulder, questionable), and TE Garrett Celek (knee/rib, questionable) — are all tentatively expected to suit up Sunday. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: In his four starts with the 49ers, Garoppolo has completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 1,250 yards and 8.4 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A). Because the Rams reportedly plan to rest their players, Jimmy G should have a much easier time against the defense that otherwise ranks third in pass DVOA. Garoppolo has a position-high 65% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. — Matthew Freedman
Pass or play? Play the 49ers. Don’t try to get in front of this 49ers team, especially since they’ll likely playing against backups. San Fran is playing as loose and confident as any team in the NFL. — Stuckey
JAGUARS AT TITANS (-3) | O/U: 41.5
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Betting market: This line peaked at Jaguars +6 earlier in the week, but has settled back down to +3 with the expectation that Jacksonville will play their starters against Tennessee. With the prospect of getting middled by anyone already holding Jags +6, it’s very unlikely that books want any part of moving this number to 2.5. — PJ Walsh
Injury watch: The Jaguars’ injury-depleted receiving core could be without WR Marqise Lee (ankle, doubtful), WR Allen Hurns (ankle, questionable) and WR Jaelen Strong (ACL, out) in addition to LT Cam Robinson (abdomen, questionable). The aforementioned injuries, along with the potential absence of No. 1 CB Logan Ryan (ankle, questionable), bode well for Dede Westbrook and Keelan Colee. DeMarco Murray (knee, questionable) is shaping up to be a game-time decision due to a third-degree MCL sprain, but his limited ability is expected to make Derrick Henry the team’s featured back regardless of if Murray is ultimately able to suit up. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: It’s been a long two years, but Derrick Henry is finally expected to work as the Titans’ featured back for their season-defining matchup against the Jaguars. DeMarco Murray (knee, questionable) has a third-degree MCL sprain should be either limited or inactive. Henry has averaged an 0.9 yards per carry more than Murray this season, and the former Heisman Trophy winner has more broken tackles, runs of 15-plus yards, and games with 100-plus rushing yards, despite working behind Murray for the entire season. Henry is projected to be one of the highest-owned backs across the industry, and for good reason: What other 6-foot-3, 245-pound human is capable of moving like this? — Ian Hartitz
Pass or play? Play the Titans -3. Tennessee matches up well considering they can run the ball and shut down the run. As Ian alluded to, a banged up Murray is actually an advantage for the Titans, as it will force them to use Henry more often. If Jacksonville loses this game, they’ll play Tennessee again next week (assuming the Ravens beat the Bengals). I don’t think the Jaguars would mind a rematch, and if that’s the case, why would they want to show anything in this game? — Stuckey
SAINTS (-7) AT BUCCANEERS | O/U: 50
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
Did you know? In the 2017 calendar year, Jameis Winston is 3-10 SU and 3-9-1 ATS. Winston has lost nine consecutive starts straight up. — Evan Abrams
Injury watch: The Saints defense is already without front-seven stalwarts LB A.J. Klein (groin, out) and DE Alex Okafor (Achilles, out), and the continued absence of DE Trey Hendrickson (ankle) won’t help against a surging Buccaneers offense that could welcome back WR DeSean Jackson (ankle, questionable), who has practiced all week. Still, both offenses are far from healthy, as Saints LT Terron Armstead (thigh, questionable) and WR Michael Thomas (hamstring, probable) could play limited snaps if active, while Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin (ankle, questionable) and TE Cam Brate (hip/knee, questionable) have each missed practice this week. — Ian Hartitz
Trend to know: The last time the Bucs and Saints played was Week 9, when New Orleans won 30-10. Teams that lost their previous head-to-head matchup by double digits and then are home dogs by a touchdown or more for the rematch have gone 68-45-1 (60.2%) ATS since 2003. — John Ewing
Pass or play? Pass — Stuckey
CARDINALS AT SEAHAWKS (-9) | O/U: 38.5
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
DFS edge: Doug Baldwin has the best matchup among Seahawks wide receivers this week, considering Patrick Peterson hasn’t followed Baldwin into the slot in recent match-ups. The Seahawks’ No. 1 WR could also avoid the Honey Badger, Tyrann Mathieu, if his services are needed at deep safety with the absence of Antoine Bethea (knee, IR) — PFF’s No. 12 overall safety this season. Baldwin is set up well at home and has taken advantage of the matchup in recent seasons. He has the highest projected floor among all WRs priced under $7,000 on DraftKings in our Pro Models. — Ian Hartitz
Trend to know: Russell Wilson is 27-5 straight up and 17-14-1 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown in his career. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Pass — Stuckey
BILLS (-2.5) AT DOLPHINS | O/U: 42.5
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Betting market: This is another Week 17 game where knowing the real money splits is crucial to understanding the complete picture. The Bills opened -2.5 against the Dolphins and are getting the majority of the betting tickets (see chart below). But because 58% percent of the dollars wagered have come down on Miami, the line has yet to bump up to -3. — PJ Walsh
Did you know? If this is it for Jay Cutler, bettors are certainly going to miss wagering against him: He’s 60-87-5 ATS (40.8%) in his career. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Pass — Stuckey
CHIEFS AT BRONCOS (-3) | O/U: 38
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Betting market: The Chiefs opened as 3-point road favorites, and after it was announced that Patrick Mahomes would get the start, the line moved six points to Broncos -3. Bettors aren’t buying into Paxton Lynch as a favorite against anyone … even a rookie QB. The Chiefs are the most public side of the week, getting 79% of tickets. — PJ Walsh
DFS edge: The sample is small, but in the preseason Mahomes looked like a future franchise quarterback, completing 63.0 percent of his 54 passes for 390 yards and four touchdowns (with no interceptions) and adding eight rushes for 44 yards. The Broncos have allowed the second-most passing touchdowns in the league (29). Facing a defense that has allowed opponents to hit their implied Vegas totals in 10 of 15 games, Mahomes will be popular with people who want to pay down at quarterback. —Matthew Freedman
Trend to know: Andy Reid is 26-14-2 ATS as an underdog vs. a division opponent in his head-coaching career (5-2 with Kansas City, 21-12-2 with the Eagles). — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Pass — Stuckey
BENGALS AT RAVENS (-9.5) | O/U: 40
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Betting market: The Ravens can lock up a playoff berth with a win over Cincinnati, but bettors are happily taking the points following the Bengals’ upset win over the Lions in Week 16. With the majority of money on Cincy, the line has moved off the important number of +10 and is down to +9.5 at Bookmaker.eu. — PJ Walsh
Trend to know: Joe Flacco is 23-1 SU and 10-14 ATS as a home favorite of over a TD in his career. His only straight up loss came against the Bengals and Carson Palmer in 2009. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Pass. This game matches the Ravens’ No. 1-ranked special teams in DVOA against the Bengals’ 20th-ranked unit. A.J. Green has historically tortured the Ravens, with or without Jimmy Smith. — Stuckey
RAIDERS AT CHARGERS (-8) | O/U: 42
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
DFS edge: Melvin Gordon has racked up more touches than anyone except Le’Veon Bell since the Chargers’ Week 10 bye, and he expressed optimism he’d be able to suit up Sunday despite dealing with a sprained ankle. Backup pass-catching RB Austin Ekeler is stuck on special teams due to a broken hand, so Gordon is locked in as the three-down workhorse on an offense fighting for its playoff life with the week’s fourth-highest implied total. The Raiders’ 23rd-ranked defensive line in adjusted line yards has allowed four backs to surpass 25 DraftKings points this season, and Gordon holds the highest projected ceiling/floor combo in our Pro Models among all running backs other than Bell. — Ian Hartitz
Did you know? Philip Rivers has played 40 home games in his career where he was favored by a TD or more. Rivers is 36-4 SU and 25-15 ATS in those games. He has won his past 10 straight up in the situation and is 13-0 SU in Weeks 14-17, as well. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Pass — Stuckey
Photo via Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
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