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Week 15 is here. We have Saturday football, Bryce Petty as a 16-point pooch, the return of Aaron Rodgers, and the 49ers as favorites. Meanwhile, Philly fans are readying their flasks as they prepare to watch the first game post-Wentz ACL tear. What could go wrong?
If there’s a specific matchup you want to jump to, click the quick links below. All info is as of Friday morning.
BEARS AT LIONS (-5) | O/U: 44
4:30 p.m. ET | NFL Network
Betting market: While the spread tickets are pretty much even, the majority of the money is on the Bears (see chart below), explaining why the line moved from an opener of Chicago +7 to +5 by Friday morning. —PJ Walsh
Injuries to watch: The Bears hope to welcome back run-stuffing DT Eddie Goldman (hip, questionable), in addition to S Adrian Amos (hamstring, questionable) — PFF’s No. 2 overall safety this season. Their potential presence, along with the return of OLB Pernell McPhee (shoulder, not listed), is bad news for a Lions offensive line without C Travis Swanson (concussion, out), right tackle Ricky Wagner (ankle, out), and potentially G T.J. Lang (foot, questionable). —Ian Hartitz
Did you know? Matthew Stafford is 11-17 ATS (39.3%) at home in his career when his team is above .500. Stafford has lost five straight ATS in this situation. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Play Chicago +5. The Lions have struggled to maintain the edge all season versus the run, especially when facing run-pass options (RPOs). The Bears, with Mitchell Trubisky at QB, run plenty of RPOs, and they should have success on the ground versus Detroit’s 28th-ranked rush defense in DVOA. — Stuckey
CHARGERS (-1) AT CHIEFS | O/U: 46.5
8:30 p.m. ET | NFL Network
Betting market: The Chargers and Chiefs have both gotten steamed when they reached +1, revealing that this game is drawing two-way sharp action with no public consensus to speak of. — PJ Walsh
Weather report: According to our weather data, the forecast calls for steady 12 mph crosswinds at Arrowhead. In games featuring strong winds (10+ mph) and totals of 44 or more, the under is 154-105-4 since 2003. PJ Walsh and John Ewing
DFS edge: Kareem Hunt’s 28 touches last week against the Raiders were the second-most he’s received in a game this season. Hunt’s mix of fantasy-friendly opportunities through the air (3.9 targets per game) and near the goal line (2.1 red-zone touches per game) sets him up well for a matchup against the Chargers’ 26th-ranked defense in rush DVOA. Proceed with some caution, though: The Chargers defense has balled out since welcoming back stud linebacker Denzel Perryman, allowing the fifth-fewest DraftKings PPG along with a league-low -4.5 Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool) to opposing RB units since Week 10. — Ian Hartitz
Did you know? Chargers QB Philip Rivers is 21-7 ATS (75%) in his career when playing on less than a full week of rest. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? The Chargers’ O-line should be able to give Rivers time against a struggling Chiefs pass-rush, but K.C. has two major advantages. 1) Run game. L.A.’s defense ranks 31st in yards per carry allowed, while K.C. is tied with New Orleans atop the league in ypc. 2) Special teams. The Chiefs rank fourth in DVOA, compared to 31st for the Chargers. This line is giving the L.A. too much respect for beating subpar competition. Their wins: Giants, Raiders, Broncos, Bills (The Peterman Game), Cowboys (without a host of stars), and Redskins. —Stuckey
PACKERS AT PANTHERS (-2.5) | O/U: 47
1:00 p.m. ET | FOX
Betting market: After rumors swirled early in the week that Aaron Rodgers may not be ready to return, news officially broke on Tuesday night that he was cleared by doctors, wreaking havoc on the betting market. This total has seen the biggest boost on the slate since the Rodgers announcement, rising from 44.5 to 47. — PJ Walsh and Mark Gallant
Trend to know: With less than 50 percent of the tickets on the Packers, it’s worth noting that Rodgers is 13-6-1 ATS when the majority of the public is betting against him. — John Ewing
DFS edge: Before his injury in Week 6, Rodgers led the league with 13 passing touchdowns in Weeks 1-5, was the frontrunner for the Most Valuable Player award, and scored 24.0 DraftKings and 22.0 FanDuel PPG. He has a tough matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks seventh in pass DVOA, and the Packers could try to take some pressure off him in his return by featuring rookie running back Jamaal Williams. But the 7-6 Packers have a chance to make the playoffs: They’ll need Rodgers to throw the ball. —Matthew Freedman
Pass or play? Play Panthers -2.5. Everyone will focus on Rodgers’ return, but the Panthers’ pass-rush has a chance to steal the show. Carolina ranks first overall in adjusted sack rate, while the Packers’ O-line falls 30th. Green Bay’s secondary is decimated by injuries, and the Panthers should have no problem moving the chains against the Packers’ 30th-ranked third-down conversion defense. — Stuckey
RAVENS (-7) AT BROWNS | O/U: 40.5
1:00 p.m. ET | CBS
Betting market: This line moved from -9 to -7 behind early Browns money, but has since steadied there as the action has evened out. — PJ Walsh
Trend to know: Large home dogs (7 or more points) late in the season (after November) are 60-42-4 (58.8%) ATS since 2003. — John Ewing
DFS edge: Josh Gordon has converted his 17 targets into a 7-154-1 line this season, demonstrating both the ball skills and social media presence of a true WR1 along the way. Next up is a Ravens defense that has allowed an additional 9.8 real points and 71 passing yards per game in six outings without No. 1 cornerback Jimmy Smith (Achilles, IR) since the beginning of last season. Gordon has winnable matchups against rookie Marlon Humphrey and 31-year-old Brandon Carr, but DeShone Kizer and the Browns’ banged-up offensive line will have their hands full with the Ravens’ ninth-ranked defensive line in adjusted sack rate. — Ian Hartitz
Did you know? This will mark the second consecutive season that the Browns haven’t been favored once at home. —Evan Abrams
Pass or play? I played the Browns +7.5 (reluctantly). Coming off an emotionally draining loss in Pittsburgh, this is a tough spot for the Ravens, who will have trouble running the ball against a Browns defense that leads the NFL in yards per carry. Baltimore is 3-0 in Cleveland the past three seasons, but the wins have come by two, five, and six points. I’m already preparing myself for a Ravens pick-six as time expires to cover. — Stuckey
TEXANS AT JAGUARS (-12) | O/U: 38.5
1:00 p.m. ET | CBS
Did you know? If Jacksonville closes above a 10-point favorite, it will be the largest spread since at least 2003 for a team that had fewer than three wins the previous season. — Evan Abrams
DFS edge: In his past three games, DeAndre Hopkins has converted his 46 (!!!) targets into a 20-190-1 line. Next up? Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, and the Jaguars’ historically great secondary. Nuk gets downgraded a bit due to the matchup, but remember: Hopkins has caught at least seven balls for 70-plus yards or scored a touchdown in every game this season. He remains capable of toppling the league’s No. 1 defense in pass DVOA, even with T.J. Yates throwing him passes. — Ian Hartitz
JETS AT SAINTS (-16) | O/U: 47.5
1:00 p.m. ET | CBS
Injuries to watch: Josh McCown’s season is over (hand, IR), meaning Bryce Petty will make his fifth-career start against a Saints defense that could be without LB A.J. Klein (groin, questionable), DE Trey Hendrickson (ankle, questionable), and SCB Kenny Vacarro (groin, questionable). Petty and the Jets could feature Bilal Powell in the run game if Matt Forte (knee, questionable) and Elijah McGuire (ankle, questionable) are ultimately unable to suit up. The good news for the Saints is that they expect to welcome back rookie sensation Alvin Kamara (concussion, probable). The bad news? They could be without starting G Andrus Peat (groin, questionable) and G Senio Kelemete (concussion, questionable). — Ian Hartitz
Betting market: The public isn’t overwhelmingly backing the Saints as massive home favorites, with the ticket count about 50-50 as of Friday morning. That’s a surprise with Petty starting at QB for the Jets. Bettors don’t expect many points, though, as 67% of tickets are on the under despite the game being played in the Coors Field of the NFL. — Mark Gallant
Did you know? This will be the first time since Dec. 17, 1995, that a team from New York is more than a two-TD underdog against someone other than Tom Brady. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Pass. I’m not in the business of laying 16 points in the NFL, but it’s Saints or nothing here. The Saints’ O-line ranks No. 4 in pass-blocking and No. 1 run-blocking, compared to 31st and 29th for the Jets’ O-line, respectively. — Stuckey
EAGLES (-7.5) AT GIANTS | O/U: 40.5
1:00 p.m. ET | FOX
Injuries to know: The mayor of Wentzylvania is done for the season with a torn ACL, meaning Nick Foles will make his first start for the Eagles since 2014. The offense will at least welcome back TE Zach Ertz (concussion, not listed), who is set up well against a Giants secondary that could be without S Landon Collins (ankle, questionable) and CB Eli Apple (hip/back, questionable), in addition to No. 1 CB Janoris Jenkins (ankle, IR). The Giants passing game will have to get by without RT Justin Pugh (back, IR), while WRs Sterling Shepard (hamstring, questionable) and Roger Lewis (ankle, questionable) aren’t guaranteed to suit up, either. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: The Giants have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks (21.2 on DraftKings and on 20.0 FanDuel), and Foles is almost certainly better than most fantasy players think. If we ignore his Jeff Fisher-tainted season (2015) — and Jared Goff and Case Keenum think we should — then we see a quarterback who in his first three seasons (2012-14) with the Eagles had a 7.7 AY/A and last year with the Chiefs had an 8.5 AY/A. In his 2013 Pro Bowl campaign, Foles was the most impressive non-Peyton Manning passer in the league. Foles has a solid trio of wide receivers, and he’s getting back Ertz, who should wreck a Giants defense that has allowed a league-worst 10 touchdowns to tight ends. On the Week 15 Daily Fantasy Flex pod, my bold call was that Foles will finish the week as a top-three fantasy quarterback. He’s in a great spot, and he leads the position with an 80 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s the highest-rated quarterback in the Levitan Model. — Matthew Freedman
Trend to know: Fading elite teams (won more than 80% of their games) late in the season (Dec-Feb) has been a profitable strategy ATS (94-65-2, 59.1% since 2003). Less than 40% of bets were Giants as +7.5-point home dogs as of Friday morning. — John Ewing
Pass or play? Pass. Philly should be able to have success running the ball and throwing to their tight ends. The Giants really struggle in both areas. But I don’t like this spot for the Eagles, who are playing their third road game in a row after spending two weeks on the West coast. They could be due for a major letdown after losing Wentz. —Stuckey
CARDINALS AT REDSKINS (-4) | O/U: 41.5
1:00 p.m. ET | FOX
Betting market: One-sided Cardinals action has driven Arizona down from an opener of +6 to +4 at Bookmaker.eu. Our Bet Signals data have remained eerily silent regarding this game as of Friday morning, indicating that the movement is due largely to steady Arizona money as opposed to syndicates. — PJ Walsh
Trend to know: This is a potential letdown spot for Cardinals after an upset win over Titans last week. Teams that go on the road after winning their previous game as a home dog are 123-169-5 (42.1%) ATS since 2003. — John Ewing
Injuries to watch: The Cardinals put Adrian Peterson on IR (neck), meaning more large workloads are on the horizon for Kerwynn Williams (ribs, probable). The Cardinals’ passing game could get John Brown (toe, questionable) back, but they’ll need to survive a plethora of injuries on the offensive line, including LT Jared Veldheer (ankle, IR), RG Earl Watford (ankle, doubtful), and LG Alex Boone (back, questionable). The Redskins will be without the services of TE Jordan Reed (hamstring, IR) and RB Byron Marshall (hamstring, IR) for the remainder of the season, but starting RT Morgan Moses (ankle, probable), LT Trent Williams (knee, probable), and WR Ryan Grant (ankle, probable) are expected to suit up Sunday. — Ian Hartitz
Did you know? Cardinals QB Blaine Gabbert has a career mark of 0-7-1 ATS in the game after a straight-up win, failing to cover the spread by more than a touchdown per game. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Pass. The Cardinals defense continues to be underrated, ranking No. 4 in DVOA. Other than that, I’ve got absolutely nothing on this game. Hard pass. — Stuckey
BENGALS AT VIKINGS (-11) | O/U: 42
1:00 p.m. ET | CBS
DFS edge: A.J. Green hasn’t surpassed 80 yards in seven of his past eight games, but he’s maintained a high floor thanks to his status as the league’s third-ranked receiver in both overall and red zone target share. He’ll have to earn every one of his yards in a tough matchup against Xavier Rhodes, who has made life difficult on many of the league’s best this year. Overall, Rhodes has found plenty of success against the likes of Antonio Brown (5-62-0), Michael Thomas (5-45-0), and Julio Jones (2-24-0), among others. — Ian Hartitz
Injuries to watch: The Bengals’ front seven could be without starting LBs Vontaze Burfict (concussion, questionable) and Kevin Minter (hamstring, questionable) in addition to Nick Vigil (ankle, IR). The secondary is already without CB Adam Jones (groin, IR) and faces the prospect of also missing CB Dre Kirkpatrick (concussion, questionable) as well as CB Darqueze Dennard (knee, probable). A limited Bengals defense is great news for a Vikings offense that could be without RT Mike Remmers (back, questionable), LT Riley Reiff (ankle, questionable), C Pat Elflein (shoulder, questionable), and TE Kyle Rudolph (ankle, questionable). — Ian Hartitz
Did you know? Before this week, Andy Dalton had never been a double-digit underdog as an NFL quarterback. — Evan Abrams
Pass or play? Pass. The Vikings have major advantages in the trenches and on third down, but they’re banged up along the O-line, and the reshuffled group allowed six sacks last week. — Stuckey
DOLPHINS AT BILLS (-3) | O/U: 39
1:00 p.m. ET | CBS
Injuries to watch: The Bills are expected to welcome back Tyrod Taylor (knee, probable), as he was able to practice in full on Wednesday and Thursday. LeSean McCoy (knee, probable) appears ready to go after returning to full participation in practice, but the same can’t be said for No. 1 WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee, questionable) and left tackle Cordy Glenn (foot/ankle, questionable). They’ll take on a Dolphins defense that could be without starting CBs Cordrea Tankersley (shoulder, questionable) and Xavien Howard (illness, questionable). — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Taylor’s expected return should help the entire Bills rushing attack, given LeSean McCoy’s positive historical splits with rushing quarterbacks. Also working in McCoy’s favor is a matchup at New Era Field, where he’s averaged an additional 7.3 DraftKings PPG and a +4.8 Plus/Minus since joining the Bills in 2015. The Dolphins’ 14th-ranked rush defense in DVOA has allowed an additional 2.5 points and 21.1 rushing yards per game on the road since the beginning of last season. — Ian Hartitz
Pass or play? Pass. This is a potential letdown spot for the Fins on a short week after a huge home upset over the Patriots. — Stuckey
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS (-2.5) | O/U: 47.5
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
Betting market: The Rams opened as 1.5-point road favorites but bettors jumped at the chance to play the Seahawks and the 12th Man as dogs, flipping Seattle to -2.5. The line is on the verge of moving to -3 across the board. — PJ Walsh and Mark Gallant
Injuries to watch: The Legion of Boom is already without CB Richard Sherman (Achilles, IR) and SS Kam Chancellor (neck, IR). Now the front seven could lose starting LBs Bobby Wagner (hamstring, questionable) and K.J. Wright (concussion, questionable). They’ll face off against a Rams offense that expects to welcome back WR Robert Woods (shoulder, probable), but faces the prospect of playing without LT Andrew Whitworth (ankle/knee, questionable) for the first time this season. The Seahawks passing game will benefit from the absence of CB Kayvon Webster (Achilles, IR), but the return of OLB Connor Barwin (forearm, probable) will be felt across the line of scrimmage. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Wilson just put up 24.84 fantasy points against the Jaguars last week: It doesn’t matter who he faces. He doesn’t have a great matchup against the Rams defense, which ranks third in pass DVOA, but the Seahawks are favored at home and implied for 25.0 points. A notoriously slow starter, Wilson has been the No. 1 fantasy quarterback since his Week 6 bye, passing for 2,305 yards, rushing for 328 yards, and scoring 23 total touchdowns in his past eight games. Wilson has strong correlation with tight end Jimmy Graham and his wide receivers, but they likely won’t have exorbitant ownership. Use our Lineup Builder to create Seahawks stacks with Wilson, who leads the position with his median and floor projections and is the highest-rated FanDuel quarterback in the Bales Model. — Matthew Freedman
Pass or play? Play Rams if it gets to +3 or at any number if Wagner and Wright are out. The Seahawks allowed TDs on three consecutive plays immediately after Wagner left last week’s game. The loss of Webster really hurts the Rams’ defense, but at least their deficiencies vs. the run will be masked against the Seahawks’ terrible run blocking. — Stuckey
PATRIOTS (-3) AT STEELERS | O/U: 53.5
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Betting market: Coming off the Patriots’ high-profile loss to the Dolphins, Pinnacle opened the Pats as 1-point road favorites. Bettors quickly pounced, pushing the line up to New England -3. This game will generate a monster handle, so it’ll be interesting to monitor whether the onslaught of New England money continues and if oddsmakers eventually give in to Pittsburgh +3.5. You’d expect to see sharp buyback at that number. — PJ Walsh
Injuries to watch: The Steelers’ committee approach in replacing Ryan Shazier at linebacker led to Joe Flacco scoring a career-high 38 points last week. Pittsburgh hopes to welcome back Joe Haden (leg, questionable) against the Patriots’ league-best offense in pass DVOA, which featured Chris Hogan (shoulder, probable) on 90 percent of the offense’s snaps in his first game back from injury last week. Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski and Steelers WR JuJu Smith-Schuster will both return from their one-game suspensions. Smith-Schuster will be greeted by a suddenly healthy New England secondary. — Ian Hartitz
Trends to know: Teams that have won 80% or more of their games in a season and still find themselves as home dogs have gone 33-23-1 ATS since 2003. That’s good for Pittsburgh. Of course, Brady is the GOAT when it comes to covering against teams with winning records (72-48-6 ATS). — John Ewing
Pass or play? Play Patriots at -3 or better. This is a great spot for the Steelers, who will attempt to avenge an AFC Championship loss against a New England team coming off of a short week to play its third consecutive road game. But fading the Patriots based on situation hasn’t worked out too well in the past. There’s no way around it: Belichick and Brady have owned Pittsburgh as a duo, compiling a 10-2 record (including postseason). New England’s coaching advantage will be especially evident in the second half. Lay the points. — Stuckey
For an expanded look at Patriots-Steelers, check out this piece.
TITANS AT 49ERS (-1) | O/U: 45.5
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Betting market: Jimmy Garoppolo is so hot right now. Not only are the 49ers favorites for the first time this season, but 60% of spread tickets are happy to lay the points against the Titans. — PJ Walsh and Mark Gallant
Trend to know: Good news 49ers fans! Teams with a winning percentage of .250 or worse that are favored over an opponent with a winning record have gone 41-28-5 (59.4%) ATS since 2003. — John Ewing
Pass or play? Pass. I expect the 49ers to play loose at home against a Titans team with a negative point differential this season despite their 8-5 record. Garoppolo should be able to handle Tennessee’s 23rd-ranked pass defense in DVOA, but I’m not quite ready to lay points with San Fran against a (crappy) Titans team still fighting for a playoff spot. — Stuckey
COWBOYS AT RAIDERS (+3) | O/U: 46
8:30 p.m. ET | NBC
Betting market: After losing faith throughout the middle portion of the season, public bettors are once again backing America’s Team. Behind 73% of spread tickets, Dallas was the most popular public side of Week 15 as of Friday morning. That overwhelming support has helped move the line from a pick ’em up to Cowboys -3. — PJ Walsh
Did you know? Jason Garrett is 7-12 ATS (36.8%) when the Cowboys are above .500 and playing in primetime. The Cowboys have lost their past three games ATS on the road in this spot. — Evan Abrams
DFS edge: Rod Smith converted just 11 touches into 160 total yards and two touchdowns during his coming-out party against the Giants last Sunday. Still, the Cowboys have chosen to feature Alfred Morris to this point, as he’s out-touched Smith 87-47 despite being out-snapped 136-160 during the first five games of Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension. Smith has out-targeted Morris 14-4, but Morris has led the way in the red zone with a 14-8 carry split. Both backs are set up well Sunday night against the Raiders’ 31st-ranked defense in DVOA. — Ian Hartitz
Pass or play? Pass. I hate everything about this game. —Stuckey
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