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Despite Carson Wentz’s injury last week, Tom Brady was unable to distance himself on the MVP odds list due to a terrible Monday Night performance in Miami.
However, Sunday night’s win in Pittsburgh has all but secured Brady the hardware in the eyes of the oddsmakers. I’m guessing he’d have far shorter odds if the Jesse James touchdown stood and the Patriots lost, but hey, what can you do?
| Player | Team | 12/18 (Bovada) | 12/13 (Bovada) | 12/5 (Bovada) | 11/27 (Bovada) | 11/21 (Bovada) | 11/13 (Bovada) | 11/7 (Bovada) | 11/1 (Bovada) | 10/18 (Bovada) | 10/11 (Bovada) | 10/4 (Bovada) | 9/26 (Bovada) | 9/20 (Bovada) | 9/13 (Bovada) | 9/7 (BetOnline) | 7/24 (BetOnline) | 6/27 (Bovada) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | NE | -1000 | -175 | -175 | -175 | -160 | +110 | +210 | +200 | +400 | +500 | +500 | +400 | +500 | +500 | +350 | +400 | +450 |
| Drew Brees | NO | +900 | +1200 | +1400 | +1600 | +800 | +2500 | +1400 | +2000 | +2000 | +2500 | +1800 | +6600 | +15000 | +5000 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Russell Wilson | SEA | +2000 | +600 | +600 | +1600 | +2000 | +2000 | +1400 | +900 | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 | +4000 | +2000 | +1600 | +1000 | +1000 | +1200 |
| Carson Wentz | PHI | +2000 | +750 | +200 | +125 | +170 | Even | Even | +210 | +175 | +700 | +1600 | +3300 | +3300 | +2000 | +10000 | +3300 | +10000 |
| Todd Gurley | LAR | +2000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +2500 | +7500 | +3300 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Antonio Brown | PIT | N/A | +750 | +5000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | +5000 | +3300 | +6600 | +3300 | +5000 |
| Philip Rivers | LAC | N/A | +1200 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | +6600 | +5000 | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | N/A | +1200 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +15000 | +15000 | +6600 | +6600 | +3300 | +2000 | +1400 | +1200 | +1000 |
| Le'Veon Bell | PIT | N/A | +5000 | +2500 | N/A | N/A | +5000 | +2800 | +3300 | +2500 | +7500 | +3300 | +10000 | +3300 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +3300 |
| Case Keenum | MIN | N/A | N/A | +3300 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jared Goff | LAR | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3300 | +5000 | +900 | +3300 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3300 | +5000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | +2500 | +1200 | +1000 | +400 | +1000 | +1600 | +1600 | +1400 | +1600 |
| Cam Newton | CAR | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3300 | +5000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | +2500 | +1200 | +1800 | +6600 | +5000 | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 | +2500 |
| Matt Stafford | DET | N/A | N/A | N/A | +6600 | +1600 | +3300 | +3300 | N/A | +2500 | +1600 | +500 | +1000 | +500 | +1000 | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Alex Smith | KC | N/A | N/A | N/A | +6600 | +2500 | +1400 | +800 | +450 | +200 | +600 | +1600 | +1400 | +2000 | +3300 | N/A | N/A | +6600 |
| Dak Prescott | DAL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +5000 | +2800 | +3300 | +3300 | +5000 | +3300 | +2000 | +3300 | +1200 | +1400 | +1200 | +1200 |
| Kirk Cousins | WAS | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +5000 | N/A | +1600 | +5000 | +3300 | +2000 | +10000 | +10000 | +6600 | N/A | +5000 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 | +1600 | +1400 | +2500 | +3300 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| DeShaun Watson | HOU | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +1000 | +1000 | +5000 | +1600 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jameis Winston | TB | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +7500 | +3300 | +2000 | +1000 | +2000 | +3300 | +6600 | +5000 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | +6600 | +6600 | +5000 | +3300 | +1600 | +2000 | +2000 |
| Aaron Rodgers | GB | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +150 | +300 | +400 | +500 | +300 | +600 | +650 | +700 |
| LeSean McCoy | BUF | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | +15000 | +10000 | +10000 | +6600 | +6600 | +10000 |
| Von Miller | DEN | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | N/A | N/A | +10000 |
| J.J. Watt | HOU | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | N/A | N/A | +6600 |
| Julio Jones | ATL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +3300 | +3300 | +5000 |
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | +7500 | +10000 | N/A | N/A | +6600 |
| Marcus Mariota | TEN | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +1600 | +3300 | +3300 | +3300 | +5000 | +3300 |
| Derek Carr | OAK | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +1400 | +900 | +1000 | +1600 | +1600 | +900 |
| Marshawn Lynch | OAK | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +6600 | +6600 | N/A | N/A | +10000 |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +6600 | +7500 | N/A | N/A | +10000 |
| Eli Manning | NYG | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +20000 | +10000 | +5000 | +3300 | +5000 |
| Khalil Mack | OAK | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | N/A | N/A | +6600 |
| Blake Bortles | JAX | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | N/A | N/A | +10000 |
| Dalvin Cook | MIN | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Leonard Fournette | JAX | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | NYG | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 | N/A | N/A | +6600 |
| Sam Bradford | MIN | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +2500 | +4000 | +3300 | +5000 |
| Trevor Siemian | DEN | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +12500 | N/A | N/A |
| AJ Green | CIN | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +12500 | N/A | N/A |
| Paxton Lynch | DEN | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +15000 | +10000 | N/A |
| Andy Dalton | CIN | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +6600 | +5000 | +10000 |
| Carson Palmer | ARI | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +4000 | +5000 | +5000 |
| Andrew Luck | IND | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3300 | +2500 | +2500 |
| David Johnson | ARI | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +2000 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Adrian Peterson | NO | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +6600 |
| T.Y. Hilton | IND | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 |
| DeMarco Murray | PHI | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +10000 |
Now at -1000, the rocket scientists at Bovada feel that there is over a 90% chance that Brady wins the MVP. At this time last season, Brady had the second best odds at +250 behind only Ezekiel Elliott in what was a very close race until the finish. Matt Ryan ended up running away with the award though, winning with 25 votes compared to Brady’s 10. Despite the media’s disdain for him and the Patriots, a perfect storm of injuries, standings, and individual performances may force voters to add another trophy to Tom’s display case.
With Nick Foles leading the Eagles’ offense to 34 points and a win against the Giants, Carson Wentz’s odds have taken another substantial hit. Obviously, nobody else is going to have a great chance when Brady is listed at -1000, but Wentz is sticking around at +2000. Will enough voters stand by Wentz despite playing three fewer games than any other candidate? I’m not so sure given Foles’ performance yesterday.
One name I’m surprised is missing is Jared Goff. Although yesterday was certainly the Todd Gurley show, the Rams’ dismantling of the NFC West cream-of-the-crop Seahawks should at least have put Goff back on the board in my eyes. Los Angeles continues to surprise me and Goff has top-10 numbers in most of the major QB stat categories. I don’t think he deserves to win the award, but he certainly deserves to have odds posted, espeically if Russell Wilson does. Wilson has thrown for six more touchdowns but has four more interceptions, a lower passer rating and two fewer wins.
Last week’s MVP article was focused on how Antonio Brown’s hot stretch had forced him into the conversation. Guess I jinxed that one, as Brown only caught two passes before injuring his calf and missing nearly the entire game vs. the Patriots. I’d be surprised if he played in either of the remaining two regular season games and not surprisingly, his case for MVP is out the window.
With the Patriots at home against the Bills this week, there’s a chance we may not even see updated MVP odds next week. Someone else is going to have to have a monster Week 16 and Week 17 to take this award away from the GOAT.
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