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As the 2017 NFL season closes in on the first quarter of the season, many teams find themselves in win-now mode after just three games. The same can be said for many fantasy football owners.
There have been plenty of ups and downs so far this season for fantasy owners. With injuries to the likes of David Johnson, Andrew Luck and Greg Olsen, and the inconsistent play of Cam Newton, this season has proved once again that fantasy football is impossible to predict.
That won't stop anyone from trying.
Heading into Sunday's slate of games, it's crucial to know who to start and who to leave on the bench. Below, we'll take a look at the best and worst matchups you should either exploit or avoid this week at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions.
Exploit: Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
The ever-consistent play of Marcus Mariota puts the Titans and fantasy owners in position to win almost every week. Coming fresh off a 225-yard passing performance with two touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks, Mariota can put up big numbers against any defense through the air.
But where Mariota can really rack up points, especially in PPR leagues, is with his legs. In addition to his passing stats, Mariota also rushed the ball seven times for 27 yards. For those of you keeping count in PPR, Mariota scored 30.70 points in a game that he didn't have to play out of his mind.
He is dangerous from every aspect of the position: his accuracy, his decision-making skills, his feet and creativity. Heading into Week 4, Mariota will take on the Houston Texans and their defense, who have surrendered the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
But keep in mind that the Texans defense hasn't faced a quarterback quite like Mariota so far this season, who is able to escape the pocket and make plays downfield while on the run. Projected to score 18.05 points in standard leagues, expect that number to be his floor on Sunday; he'll do much better than that.
Avoid: Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders
This isn't a hot take, nor is this anything personal against Derek Carr, but coming off the worst performance in his career last week against the Washington Redskins, Carr will have another tough outing on Sunday against the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos are no joke this season, especially on defense. With the likes of Von Miller coming off the edge, there's no telling the type of damage he can do to an opposing offense on a given week.
Take into consideration that Carr scored just 7.22 points in standard leagues last week and is only projected to score 16.80 points against Denver, Carr might not be the lock we all thought he would be after putting up great numbers last season before being bit by the injury bug.
Don't drop Carr by any means—his performance last weekend could've just been an off day. But there's no point taking a chance on him against a much more formidable defense in Week 4. Leave him on the bench.
Exploit: Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
While he's not having an Ezekiel Elliott rookie season thus far, Leonard Fournette is at least putting up quality fantasy numbers as the clear bell-cow running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
After an impressive Week 1 showing against the Houston Texans, Fournette has come down to earth a bit in the past two games, gaining just 40 yards in Week 2 and 59 yards in Week 3. While those numbers don't inspire much confidence for fantasy owners, the fact that he has found the end zone in each game tells you one thing: goal-line carries.
In standard leagues, Fournette might be considered touchdown dependent until the Jaguars can provide better blocking for him to get downfield. But in PPR, Fournette is scoring points just from double-digit carries alone.
Going up against the New York Jets this weekend, who have given up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, Fournette might have another breakout game against a mediocre front-seven.
At the least, he should be able to find the end zone at some point. Let the rookie play.
Avoid: Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers
Carlos Hyde is actually having a pretty decent year for the San Francisco 49ers. It's just too bad that no one, except his fantasy owners, are really taking notice.
With 253 rushing yards and two touchdowns through three games, Hyde is clearly the best back in San Francisco. But the problem with Hyde is that his teammates can't keep up with their opposition and fall behind too often for him to really showcase his skills as a runner.
Hyde isn't the best receiving back in the world, and numbers don't lie. But in close games, like the 49ers' Week 3 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, he was able to get plenty of carries to establish himself in the run game, picking up 84 yards on 25 carries.
Having said that, Hyde and the 49ers will face-off against the Arizona Cardinals, which has the potential to be a blowout if Arizona can play to its full potential on offense.
Hyde could still have a decent game if San Francisco's defense can keep it close, but it's not likely. Play Hyde only if you have to this week.
Exploit: DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
Who's the most targeted wide receiver in the NFL through three games? If you guessed anyone besides Houston Texans' receiver DeAndre Hopkins, you're wrong.
While Hopkins hasn't hauled in every one of his 37 targets, the volume of looks he's getting is attractive to fantasy owners, standard or PPR. Averaging seven catches per game this season (21 total), Hopkins is the clear favorite of rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson.
Even with the return of Will Fuller, Hopkins should still be one of the top receivers in fantasy this week as Houston takes on the Titans, who have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers through three games.
Let the good times roll with Hopkins and hope Watson continues to target him with regularity.
Avoid: Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks
Doug Baldwin is always overlooked as a fantasy option, especially when it's time to draft at the beginning of the season.
And considering that he's coming off his best statistical performance of the season in Week 3 with 10 receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown, you would be crazy not to play him, right?
Wrong.
While Baldwin has been a consistent force for the Seattle Seahawks and their inconsistent offense, he's going up against the Indianapolis Colts this week. What can they do to stop Baldwin that makes him a player to avoid this week?
A fair question, and usually the answer is "nothing." But All-Pro cornerback Vontae Davis is set to make his season debut for the Colts against Seattle, meaning that he will be stalking Baldwin for the majority of the game. Whether Davis is 75 or 100 percent healthy is not the question.
The threat he presents to opposing quarterbacks is real, and the Seahawks will most likely find more success running the ball against a bad Colts defensive line, or throw it over the middle for short routes to Jimmy Graham, who has finally come back to life after a seven-reception performance last weekend.
Baldwin should be a flex-option this week. Avoid him if you can.
All fantasy projections/stats are courtesy of Yahoo Sports.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
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