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I have a general rule in fantasy football: One week is a fluke, two weeks is a trend and three weeks is a pattern.
Generally, what that means is that I'll pay attention to anything that happens in a week, but I rarely react to it with too much excitement or dread. If a random player steps into the starting lineup and blows up, I'm not going to make him a must-start player based on one game. Likewise, if a star struggles, I'm not going to automatically bench him. My radar has been dinged, but we're in the monitoring phase.
At two weeks of fantastic or disappointing results, I'm fully engaged. I want to know why the player is posting huge or weak numbers. Is that production or lack thereof likely to continue? What factors could make his current production sustainable? Does the player have a history that suggests he's prone to hot or cold streaks?
Now we've hit full-blown analysis phase.
By three weeks of similar production, a pattern has emerged and I'm inclined to believe that a player is performing at their expected level. While that doesn't mean I'll automatically anoint a player or banish him forever to my bench after three games of like results, it's the point at which I'm most inclined to be swayed that a player has either dramatically improved or declined.
We're in Week 2. It's not time to start throwing parties or blowing up your teams just yet, and the same holds true for the fantasy trade value chart. There are players who have failed to perform up to the patterns they have established in their careers, while others have blown up but without the past pedigree needed to trust them. Keep that in mind before doing anything hasty this week.
And as always, a reminder: Any player not listed below has a trade value of one. May the fantasy points be with you.
Trade Value: 11
1. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Yes, both of these guys have had a dud in one of their games. Fret not: They have the track record to indicate that they are each the two safest and most productive players at a volatile position in fantasy. If you can buy low, by all means, go and get them. But do not sell on either player.
Trade Value: 10
3. Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
6. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants
Beckham is the player we'll be monitoring here. Chances are his relatively quiet Week 2 was related to his return from injury and the corresponding rust that missing time can cause. However, given the utter disarray New York's offense has been in to start the season, Beckham is perhaps on shakier ground than the other three receivers in the elite tier at the position.
Don't panic just yet, but be on alert. If the Giants don't reverse course offensively soon, Beckham could be in line for a slight dip in production. More than likely, however, a return to full health will also improve the team's offense as a whole. Beckham is the sort of tide that can lift all boats.
Trade Value: 9
7. LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
8. Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
9. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
10. Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins
11. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
12 Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
13. Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears
14. Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams
15. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
This third tier has basically become any other player that I believe will consistently be an RB1 this year but doesn't have the championship-winning upside of Bell and Elliott, along with Gronkowski, who, as always, has elite-tier production but the constant threat of injury to give fantasy owners pause.
Last week, I convinced myself that McCoy had that highest-tier level of upside because he'll see many touches in Buffalo's scheme. This week, the Bills reminded me that they are really, really bad, and McCoy isn't immune to the dry spells an offense like Buffalo is bound to experience.
That's not a knock on McCoy. He's still crazy valuable. He's still going to have a great season. But he's not on Bell or Elliott's level. Not quite.
Moving on. Some of you may be saying to yourselves, "Uh, Tim, in your intro you wouldn't shut up about trends and patterns or whatever, and not overreacting after two weeks, but here you are anointing Fournette and Hunt as RB1 players after just two weeks. What gives?"
Fair point.
In rebuttal, I'll say this: We've seen Fournette dominate before. We know how good he is. And we know that rookie running backs can dominate, a la Elliott last year. Fournette seems more than up to speed at the NFL level, and the Jags are clearly dedicated to making him the centerpiece of their offense. Fournette being a top-10 running back is based on far more than two weeks of results.
It's what his potential always suggested he was capable of becoming.
As for Hunt, if you watch him play at all, it's clear he's a legitimate talent. He bounces off would-be tacklers like a pinball. He's elusive and explosive. And he's in a scheme that has made stars out of running backs before.
I'm not starry-eyed by his ridiculous Week 1. To me, Hunt's incredible upside was solidified in Week 2, against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that had largely shut him out for much of the game. And then in the third quarter, Hunt finally found running room and exploded for a 53-yard touchdown. Late in the fourth quarter, he added a two-yard score.
Take away those two plays, and the Eagles held Hunt to 54 yards on 14 touches. But Hunt found a way to make a major impact. That's the mark of a burgeoning fantasy star.
Trade Value: 8
16. Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers
17. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
18. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
19. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
There isn't much to say here. These are pretty steady guys who hold plenty of fantasy value.
Green is worth monitoring because Cincy's offense has been a mess, but he's still caught 10 passes for 141 yards this season. If Green's floor is 80 receptions for 1,128 yards, which is his current pace, you could do a whole lot worse.
Sure, sprinkling in a few touchdowns would be nice, but the point is that Green is safe even as the Bengals limp through an identity crisis.
Trade Value: 7
20. Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland Raiders
21. DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans
22. Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans
23. Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers
24. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
25. C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos
26. Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
27. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Crabtree is on fire to open the 2017 season, with 12 receptions for 163 yards and three touchdowns. To be clear, that puts him on pace for 96 receptions, 1,304 yards and 24 touchdowns. Two of those stats are feasible. One of them isn't. I'm sure you can put two and two together.
But here's the thing about those touchdowns—Crabtree has 20 of them in 34 regular-season games with the Raiders. He's clearly Derek Carr's favorite weapon in the red zone, and he's supplemented it with 2,088 receiving yards in those games.
What I'm saying here is there is little reason to think Crabtree is going to suddenly see a major dip in production. He won't keep up his ridiculous pace, but for now, you're either selling high on Crabtree or buying at an expensive price. And until he stops scoring touchdowns, he's going to remain high on this list.
The other interesting player here is Murray, who has 21 rushes for 69 yards this season and has been dealing with a hamstring injury.
His backup and eventual successor, Derrick Henry, rushed 14 times for 92 yards and a score, leading to those feverish whispers that perhaps Henry was about to take over as the team's top option in the run game.
But here's the thing. People suspected Murray and Henry, at the very least, would share touches last season, and then Murray rushed 293 times for 1,287 yards and nine scores. And ignoring his season with the Philadelphia Eagles, which was a strange situation and a bad fit, it was his third season with at least 1,100 rushing yards and nine touchdowns since 2013.
Yes, Murray is now 29. Maybe injuries will slow him down. Maybe he's lost a step. But until we see for sure that Henry has clearly taken over the feature back role in Tennessee's offense, don't bail on Murray.
Trade Value: 6
28. Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders
29. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
30. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys
31. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans
32. Brandin Cooks, WR, New England Patriots
33. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos
34. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks
35. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
36. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers
37. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
There are a lot of players here on the cusp of either being great or being average. Some guys (Thomas, Baldwin, Cooks, Bryant, Benjamin) have underachieved after being considered top-20 options coming into the season, though in the case of Cooks, he can perhaps be forgiven as he learns the ropes in a new system.
Some (Cooper, Jeffrey, Hopkins, Thomas, Allen) have mostly been as advertised and have the opportunity to climb into the higher ranks if their production remains consistent.
This is what I call the "On the Edge" tier of wideouts. You can probably buy low on all of them, as they have the upside to be two or tiers higher. But it's a gamble, as these guys also present more question marks than some of the safer players at the position.
Trade Value: 5
38. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
39. Jordan Reed, TE, Washington
40. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
41. Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
42. Terrelle Pryor, WR, Washington
43. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
44. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos
45. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders
46. Ty Montgomery, RB, Green Bay Packers
47. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers
48. Mike Gillislee, RB, New England Patriots
49. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns
50. Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions
51. Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks
There are some jewels in this class with a high potential for value mobility, namely Hill, Reed, Newton, Hilton, Montgomery and Graham.
Hill needs to prove he can consistently produce like a top wideout and he'll climb the chart. Reed needs to stay healthy. Newton needs to shake off the rust from his offseason shoulder surgery and play like he did in 2015. Hilton needs Andrew Luck back. Montgomery needs to prove he's durable enough to be a true feature back and focal point for Green Bay. Graham needs to become a bigger focal point of Seattle's game-planning, which has been an issue since he's gotten there.
There's a lot of potential in this group of players. If there's one section of guys where you could buy low on, this is it.
Trade Value: 4
52. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks
53. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
54. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
55. Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins
56. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
57. Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
58. Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings
59. Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
60. Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans
61. Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
Prescott has had some tough matchups to start the season and has still produced decent numbers. I'm not too worried about him from a fantasy perspective.
Wilson's start has been a bit more worrisome, as Seattle's offense has struggled in general. But food for thought: Seattle's record from November to January in regular-season game since 2012 is 34-9.
Seattle's record in September and October from 2012 until present is 23-15-1.
What I'm trying to say, folks, is that the Seahawks have a habit of getting better as the season progresses. So I'm not worried about Wilson or the team's offense. Not yet. I'd surely have a reliable backup if Wilson was on my team, but I'm not selling low on him, either.
Trade Value: 3
62. Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders
63. Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans
64. Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
65. Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts
66. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings
67. DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins
68. Robert Kelley, RB, Washington
69. DeSean Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
70. Sammy Watkins, WR, Los Angeles Rams
71. Terrance West, RB, Baltimore Ravens
72. Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
73. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions
74. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers
75. Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks
76. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Baltimore Ravens
77. Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers
78. Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys
While the Cowboys offer a mixed bag on offense early in the season, Witten has been fantastic, catching an incredible 17 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns. No, he's not going to keep up that pace, but he's been Prescott's best friend early in the season.
He's a guy I'm intrigued by early in the season, if only because some of the more productive tight ends have struggled out of the gate and Witten has been a must-start player. If he can keep up anywhere in the near vicinity of this level of production, the future Hall of Famer could keep himself locked into a TE1 valuation for the long haul.
On the other hand, your chance to buy low on him is probably over. Out in the wild, he'll probably be valued more highly than I have him here, since I'm factoring in a regression to the mean. Remember, Witten had three touchdowns in 2015 and three touchdowns in 2016. He has two this year already.
In other words, sell high or hold onto him and hope he continues to produce at somewhere close to his ridiculous pace.
Trade Value: 2
79. Tarik Cohen, RB, Chicago Bears
80. Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers
81. Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
82. Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington
83. Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
84. Buck Allen, RB, Baltimore Ravens
85. Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
86. Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee Titans
87. Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Giants
88. Adrian Peterson, RB, New Orleans Saints
89. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
90. Paul Perkins, RB, New York Giants
91. James White, RB, New England Patriots
92. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
93. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
94. Coby Fleener, TE, New Orleans Saints
95. Cooper Kupp, WR, St. Louis Rams
96. Allen Hurns, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
97. Martellus Bennett, TE, Green Bay Packers
98. J.J. Nelson, WR, Arizona Cardinals
99. Chris Thompson, RB, Washington
100. Marqise Lee, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
There is plenty of potential here, but an equal amount of need for these types of players to prove they'll have substantial value in fantasy. Cohen remains the most intriguing player in this bunch because the Bears have such a lack of playmakers on offense.
Henry obviously has huge upside if Murray's injury woes persist. Kupp seems to have developed an instant rapport with Jared Goff, which makes him intriguing. Fleener is finally living up to his potential in New Orleans. Hurns has always possessed big-play potential, though I suspect Lee will end up having steadier value in Allen Robinson's absence. Hurns has been boom-or-bust in his career given his reliance on touchdowns for value.
There is plenty worth monitoring in this tier and plenty of questions that persist.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
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