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For some brave souls, the fantasy football season is not yet complete.
Not every league wipes Week 17 from memory. Despite the complications raised from playoff teams resting key starters, some formats still use the final weekend to crown a champion. Others operate on a season-long points system, avoiding the pitfalls of one bad day—or one great day for the opponent—sending months of work into flames.
Gamers jousting for a title this weekend face tougher decisions than ever. Dissecting data and projecting a game's trajectory is hard enough without also not knowing who will bother to play.
Beware the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans, all of whom are fastened into a precise playoff spot. The Miami Dolphins may not go full throttle in hopes of jumping from the No. 6 to 5 spot, and nobody knows which eliminated squads have mentally started the offseason.
Nevertheless, let's dive into the unknown terrain and try to make sense of Week 17.
Quarterback
Start: Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (at IND)
Many people who drafted Blake Bortles are not reading Week 17 advice articles. Yet his regression has harmed the Jacksonville Jaguars more than fantasy gamers, as he enters the final weekend No. 12 in ESPN.com scoring among quarterbacks. In this make-believe universe, he's been better than Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers and Cam Newton.
The 24-year-old has accounted for a touchdown in all 15 games, crossing the pylon as a runner in the two games without a passing score. He offered an apology to underwhelmed investors by amassing 325 passing yards and two touchdowns (one pass to Marqise Lee, one catch from Lee) in Jacksonville's first game after firing head coach Gus Bradley.
Look for him to finish the season strong—at least from a fantasy perspective—on New Year's Day. Per ESPN.com, the Indianapolis Colts have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While turnovers are always an issue for the Jaguars quarterback, the Colts have collected just eight interceptions.
None of those picks came in their last meeting, when Bortles submitted two passing touchdowns and one rushing score during a 30-27 victory. It'd take someone with ice in his or her veins not to feel nervous using him in a title matchup, but he's a top-12 Sunday play.
Sit: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (vs. KC)
The scheduling gods awarded Rivers a favorable closing schedule, but he hasn't capitalized.
Over the last four weeks, the 35-year-old passer has exclusively faced opponents ranked among the bottom 10 in yards allowed per pass attempt. He responded with 989 passing yards, eight touchdowns (two in each game) and seven interceptions.
The San Diego Chargers scored 16 to 21 points in all four losses, during which he mustered a ghastly 53.9 completion percentage.
While investors won't mind Week 16's 322-yard, two-touchdown line against the Cleveland Browns, he completed half of his 46 throws and went silent during a tight fourth quarter. ESPN Stats & Info illuminated his troubling turnover woes following his 19th interception of the season last Saturday:
This doesn't bode well for a tough opponent in the Kansas City Chiefs, who can seize the division and a first-round bye with a win and Oakland Raiders loss. Although ranked No. 17 in passing yards allowed (245.9), Kansas City has yielded the NFL's third-lowest completion percentage (58.6) and opposing quarterback rating (80.1). If Rivers remains callous with deep throws in traffic, Marcus Peters and Eric Berry will make him pay.
Sitting a healthy quarterback with 4,117 passing yards and 31 touchdowns isn't a feasible option for all owners this weekend, but Bortles and Jameis Winston are preferable Week 17 alternatives.
Running Back
Start: DeAngelo Williams, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. CLE)
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin simultaneously hurt and helped fantasy managers by announcing intentions to sit his star offensive starters, per Nate Ulrich of Akron Beacon Journal:
While that's unfortunate news for anyone who owns Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and/or Antonio Brown, at least they can now plan accordingly. Let's hope Bell investors kept DeAngelo Williams around as a handcuff.
Per ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler, the Steelers intend on sharing the carries between Williams and Fitz Toussaint, who has 98 career rushing yards over three years. Williams, meanwhile, compiled 347 yards on 80 touches during Bell's three-game suspension to start the season.
The 33-year-old backup has become an afterthought since Bell's return, but he proved a top-shelf starter last year when his younger teammate sat, accruing 1,121 yards in 10 of those games. Per NFL Network's Aditi Kinkhabwala, he's excited to dust off the cobwebs against the Browns:
Expect plenty of running versus Cleveland, who has relinquished 147.6 yards per game on the ground. A potential focal point of Pittsburgh's B-Team should produce as an RB No. 2.
Sit: Zach Zenner, Detroit Lions (vs. GB)
Zach Zenner would have swung many Week 16 matchups if anybody thought to start him. Entering the season's last Monday Night Football with 328 total yards and one touchdown, he registered a season-high 92 yards and doubled his prior touchdown tally with two end-zone visits.
Nobody needs to question the Detroit Lions' motivation entering Sunday night's NFC North title bout versus the Green Bay Packers. Those who scooped Zenner off the waiver wire, however, should forecast his workload cautiously.
The 25-year-old running back has received double-digit touches in two games this season, and only the perpetually trailing Browns have run fewer times than the Lions. When the division rivals met in September, Matthew Stafford accumulated 385 passing yards on 41 attempts.
Zenner is most intriguing in point-per-reception (PPR) formats, as Detroit backs have combined for 85 catches this season. He's a flex play in those leagues, and some managers might not have a better choice this weekend, but don't overrate recent results and assume he's in store for another big evening.
Wide Receiver
Start: Steve Smith Sr., Baltimore Ravens (at CIN)
There's danger in falling for sentiment. A successful fantasy manager separates emotions and rooting interests from numbers, valuing logic and reason over gut feelings and wishful thinking.
But Westworld's technicians haven't yet created lineup-setting hosts, so all humans will take note of Steve Smith Sr. revealing he's "about 89 percent sure" he'll retire after the season, per NFL's Twitter page:
It's ill-advised to start the 37-year-old receiver solely because of this announcement. Then again, it's also foolish to think the Baltimore Ravens won't want to send him off on a high note. He may have already benefited from this bump, scoring in each of the last two games with seven targets apiece.
Now the caveats. Smith also scored in consecutive games before Baltimore's first game against the Cincinnati Bengals, and he finished with 20 yards on four catches. Only the Denver Broncos have surrendered fewer ESPN.com fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts.
Don't overstate his Week 17 appeal because of his farewell, but treat Smith as a serviceable No. 3 receiver in a divisional feud with only pride at stake.
Sit: Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders (at DEN)
Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper have delivered all year, respectively ranking as ESPN.com's No. 10 and 14 wide receivers. Players in that scoring echelon typically garner "trust your studs" endorsements, but not here.
The Raiders will try to clinch their first AFC West title since 2002 without Derek Carr, who broke his right leg last weekend. Anyone depending on their top receivers must trust Matt McGloin to keep them well fed against Denver's top-ranked passing defense.
Even with Carr, Crabtree and Cooper owners wouldn't feel confident this weekend after they generated 27 and 56 yards, respectively, in their first Broncos encounter. The Raiders won with a ground-heavy attack, delivering 218 rushing yards and all three of their touchdowns on the ground.
Now they have even more reason to execute the same game plan versus the No. 29 rushing defense.
Anyone expecting over six catches and 60 yards from either wideout is setting the bar too high. Avoid the risk in shallow leagues.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
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