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Welcome to the fantasy football semifinals.
From first-round busts (we don't want any problems, Todd Gurley) to late-round steals (same goes for you, LeGarrette Blount), it's been a wild ride—as it always is.
This week brings cold weather, mouth-watering matchups and huge stakes.
Let's talk starts and sits.
Running Backs
Start: Tevin Coleman
The Atlanta Falcons are playing the San Francisco 49ers.
If you stopped reading there, you'd have enough evidence that both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are no-brainer starts. Chip Kelly's defense is the league's most generous unit to opposing rushers in ESPN half-point-per-reception leagues—and it's not close.
One common thread in putting on a track meet against the Niners is explosiveness. Bulldozers have had success, but the massive games are coming from rabbit-type runners.
Take LeSean McCoy's performance in Week 6. Shady turned 19 carries into 140 yards and three touchdowns.
Coleman might not find paydirt thrice, but he seems like a sure bet for 70 total yards and a score. Like McCoy, he's got a second gear few runners in the league can kick into:
Since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 12, though, Coleman has scored three times without racking up the big-time yardage we saw from him earlier in the year.
Expect that breakout to come in a dream matchup here.
Sans Julio Jones, Coleman is likely to stay busy through the air. Additionally, if the game gets out of hand, Freeman could cede touches to his second-year backfield mate.
Sit: Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon
Adrian Peterson might be coming back this week.
He returned to practice on Wednesday and said he hopes to play Week 16 against the Green Bay Packers, per John Shipley of the Pioneer Press. On Friday, though, he said he will play against the Indianapolis Colts:
That means even less certainty for Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata.
Sit both.
Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford has totaled three straight 200-yard games with a touchdown in each of his last two. This week's matchup with Andrew Luck and the Colts could easily become high-scoring, which would limit the plodding Asiata's value to goal-line touches.
McKinnon isn't a terrible play, but he's cracked double-digit fantasy points in ESPN half-PPR leagues—which benefit his receiving ability—just once dating back to Week 5.
Plus, nobody has a clue what type of workload AP would be able to handle coming off his meniscus tear. If you're throwing a Hail Mary and starting Peterson, so be it. But this week, it's a stretch to play either of the other Vikings ball-carriers.
Wide Receivers
Start: Sammy Watkins
Heading into his fourth game back after returning from a foot injury in Week 12, Sammy Watkins seems poised for a breakout.
The key ingredients are all there.
Ideal matchup? Check. The Browns are surrendering the ninth-most points to receivers.
Quarterback with something to prove? Check. Tyrod Taylor has been the subject of contract discussion and bench rumors—an admittedly odd combination—lately, according to Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com, so he'll look to put on a show against the Browns. T-Mobile will need his No. 1 target to do that.
Something for the team to play for? Check. The Browns are winless, and losing to them could make booting head coach Rex Ryan unavoidable. Here are some telling quotes from Watkins, per ESPN.com (h/t Pro Football Talk):
We know if we lose, something crazy might happen immediately. We need to go out there and win this game. I want to move forward. I don't want to keep going through all this craziness, changing OCs. That kills the players, the team and the organization. … I know if we win out, there's a possibility that he stays here. That's kind of the goal that we're pushing for. That's the goal.
Per DraftKings' Adam Levitan, Watkins' playing time has been on a steady rise:
He should be viewed as a borderline WR1 in all formats.
Sit: DeAndre Hopkins
Remember when you drafted DeAndre Hopkins, or acquired him early on, and thought, "I can't wait to play him against the Jags in the playoffs"?
Don't do it.
Nuk totaled 48 yards on five grabs against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9, which was actually a decent performance against rookie lockdown corner Jalen Ramsey.
Thanks in large part to Ramsey and Prince Amukamara, Jacksonville, for all its faults, is allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers in ESPN half-PPR leagues. Hopkins had 48 of Houston's 58 receiving yards from wideouts in the first showdown.
In addition to the harsh matchup, Hopkins has simply been abysmal, though the blame likely falls more on quarterback Brock Osweiler. Last week, Nuk caught two balls for 33 yards against the Colts, who scare no one defensively.
It might be painful, especially if you've held on to Hopkins all year. But with your season on the line, he's simply not start-worthy.
Tight Ends
Start: Jermaine Gresham
The case for Jermaine Gresham is a simple one.
According to FantasyPros, Jermaine Gresham has been the No. 9 tight end since the Arizona Cardinals' Week 9 bye, trailing Jimmy Graham by an average of 0.4 points. He's caught five passes in three straight games and has two scores in his last four.
The Cardinals also released Michael Floyd on Wednesday following his DUI arrest on Monday. That doesn't guarantee an uptick in targets for Gresham, as Larry Fitzgerald, David Johnson and J.J. Nelson will all be involved.
But it's certainly conceivable. In what figures to be a high-scoring affair, Gresham is a TE1.
Sit: Dennis Pitta
In non-PPR formats, Dennis Pitta has cracked double digits twice all season. He's scored twice. He's reached 50 yards three times.
He's had a small handful of decent games. The rest have been yawn-worthy.
Don't let Week 13's nine-catch, 90-yard, two-touchdown blowup fool you into thinking Pitta is a strong tight end option in the playoffs.
Making matters worse for potential Pitta owners, the Philadelphia Eagles have given up a league-low 338 yards all season to opposing tight ends. That's 26 yards a game.
Look elsewhere…
Bonus Start
…Like Jack Doyle.
Owned in just 17.6 percent of ESPN leagues, the 26-year-old tight end has thrived in the absence of wide receiver Donte Moncrief, who has been ruled out for Sunday. The correlation makes sense—Doyle simply fills the big-man target role.
Here's Rotoworld's Nick Mensio:
In the seven games Moncrief missed or didn't finish this season, Doyle was targeted at least four times in five of those, topped 53 yards in four, and scored two of his four touchdowns. … T.Y. Hilton will dominate the looks between the 20s, but when it comes to scoring position, Doyle is at the top of the list. Minnesota presents a tough matchup, but it has allowed a pair of touchdowns to tight ends in its past five games. Doyle should be in on nearly every snap.
Roll with Doyle over Pitta.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
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