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Week 13 signals the beginning of the playoffs in many fantasy football leagues, ratcheting up the tension and making the waiver wire that much more important as the real NFL season winds to a close.
This is the point in the year where injuries, suspensions and dips in production really start to make fantasy footballers nervous.
Nobody wants to be the person who drops that flex running back on a downswing, only to see that player pay dividends for someone else in the league. It's just as agonizing to think you have the perfect sleeper pickup for the week, only to see that player put up lackluster production.
Even if the playoffs haven't started in your league, this could be the week that makes or breaks your championship chances.
Here's a look at the top waiver-wire pickups heading into Week 13 in ESPN and Yahoo Sports fantasy leagues, along with stat projections from ESPN.com. In order to account for the larger leagues, only players owned in less than 50 percent of leagues are included in the table.
Rookie Watch Heading into Week 13
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
No question about it, Tyreek Hill is the headline pickup heading into Week 13. The rookie receiver out of West Alabama has worked his way into greater prominence in the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the season has gone along, flashing skills as a big-play wide receiver and acting as a changeup with a carry or two in the running game each week.
Against the Denver Broncos in Week 12, Hill managed a season-high nine receptions for 52 yards and a touchdown, scored on a three-yard rush and even managed an 86-yard kick return touchdown.
ESPN Stats & Info noted it was a truly rare display:
Though he's only just now flashing his potential, Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson noted Hill has been sneakily productive this entire season:
His speed and elusiveness have served him well and made him an increasingly valuable part of this offense.
Wide receiver has been a notoriously weak position for the Chiefs over the course of the past few seasons, and though Hill lacks polish, his athleticism is difficult to ignore.
With a breakout display against the stingy Broncos defense, Hill is liable to have an even bigger game in Week 13 against the Atlanta Falcons.
No strangers to shootouts thanks to their high-powered offense and their middle-of-the-line defense, the Falcons could force the Chiefs to pass the ball quite a bit in this contest.
Kansas City is in the thick of the playoff hunt with an 8-3 record and trailing the Oakland Raiders by one game in the crowded AFC West. Look for the Chiefs to go to Hill even more as they figure out what kind of gem they have on their hands in this talented 22-year-old.
Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals rookie Tyler Boyd made his first career start at wide receiver in Week 12, starting in place of an injured A.J. Green. He was a popular fantasy pickup heading into the game against the Baltimore Ravens after scoring a touchdown in Week 11 against the Buffalo Bills, but he failed to make much of a fantasy impact with five receptions for 62 yards in the Bengals' 19-14 loss.
Boyd's potential in Week 13 is still fairly murky. His nine targets against the Ravens were a season high, and his 12.4 yards per reception in the game bodes well for his production.
Quarterback Andy Dalton spread the ball around pretty evenly, targeting wide receiver Brandon LaFell nine times and tight end Tyler Eifert 11, so Boyd didn't quite jump to the front of the queue with Green injured.
The offense as a whole might have better luck in Week 13, as the Bengals are at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. Per Yahoo Sports, the Eagles are giving up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wideouts, and the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers did pretty well to torch the Eagles secondary on Monday night.
Dalton is certainly no Rodgers, but he's been throwing the ball quite a bit lately with at least 40 pass attempts in three of the last four games.
Boyd is likely to see similar production in terms of yards and receptions in Week 13, but his fantasy impact will likely hinge on his finding the end zone (Note: This also applies to the San Diego Chargers' Dontrelle Inman, another popular fantasy pickup this week).
Considering the Bengals are on a three-game losing streak and have scored 20 points or fewer in each of those contests, Boyd is a risky WR3/flex play in Week 13.
Wendell Smallwood, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
With fellow running backs Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews hampered by injuries, rookie running back Wendell Smallwood had a big chance to assert himself as the go-to back in Week 12 against the Packers. Unfortunately, the Eagles offense struggled all game, and Smallwood disappointed fantasy owners expecting a big game from him with just nine carries for 37 rushing yards and one reception for another 10 yards.
Smallwood did do well when given the opportunity, averaging over four yards per carry on the game, but there simply wasn't much offense to go around with rookie quarterback Carson Wentz struggling and the Packers defense finally coming alive after a long string of zombie-like displays.
Bleeding Green Nation would apparently have liked to have seen Smallwood given more of a chance to get in a rhythm:
Still, Smallwood didn't do quite enough to establish himself as a clear-cut starter going forward. Sproles saw some time on the field in Week 12, and one would assume he's going to increase his role going forward as his health improves.
The Eagles get the Bengals in Week 13, and Cincinnati still plays some excellent defense despite the overall struggles. Unless head coach Doug Pederson makes it clear he's going to make Smallwood the center of the offense going forward, the rookie tailback is a risky play with a potential committee backfield hampering his ability to get a robust number of touches and snaps.
Malcolm Mitchell, WR, New England Patriots
The New England Patriots appear to be in warm-bodies mode heading into Week 13, as the banged-up team saw stars Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski hobbled after a messy 22-17 win over the New York Jets.
Brady was dealing with swelling in his knee heading into the game against the Jets and didn't look quite like his usual world-beating self during the contest. Gronkowski left the game with a back injury, though it's not thought to be serious, according to Pro Football Talk. However, NFL.com's Judy Battista noted that Gronkowski is still dealing with a punctured lung, which could mean the Pats will be cautious with him moving forward.
So New England will likely need someone to step up on offense down the stretch, and that player appears to be rookie wide receiver Malcolm Mitchell. The 24-year-old Georgia product caught four passes for 98 yards and a score in Week 11 against the San Francisco 49ers, and he followed that up with five catches for 42 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets.
Though he wasn't perfect on Sunday, Mitchell did beat cornerback Darrelle Revis for his second touchdown of the game. Revis isn't the shutdown corner of years past, but it's a nice accomplishment for a rookie wide receiver, and his teammates are taking notice.
"I think Malcolm has done a lot to gain everyone's trust because he shows up every day, works his butt off and is so committed to the team," Brady said, per the Boston Herald's Ron Borges. "He's come through in the clutch so we keep giving him opportunities."
The Patriots are at home against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 13. The Rams' usually crushing defense just gave up 49 points to the New Orleans Saints in Week 12, so there could be plenty of opportunity for the Patriots to put up points in this one. With Mitchell playing his way into a starring role and the Patriots needing to keep other key players fresh, look for him to continue his breakout streak with a big game against the Rams.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
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