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There is little room for margin of error at this point in the fantasy football season.
Many leagues are just a week or two away from the start of their fantasy playoffs, and every lineup decision is critical when it comes to winning or losing on a weekly basis.
While the danger for overthinking a start-him-or-bench-him decision is always a possibility, we remain steadfast in the belief that the more accurate information we have, the better off we are.
With a full schedule of 16 games on tap for Week 12, we have the opportunity to choose the best and healthiest players this week.
While the usual running back studs such as the Pittsburgh Steelers' Le'Veon Bell and the Arizona Cardinals' David Johnson appear well-situated for excellent games in Week 12 against the Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons, respectively, our top choice is Melvin Gordon of the San Diego Chargers.
Gordon has been a dramatically different player in his second year than he was in 2015. There was a certain timidity to his game as a rookie, as it seemed like the last thing he wanted to do was make a mistake that would put him in the coaches' dog house.
That attitude has disappeared in 2016, as Gordon has been attacking opposing defenses without fear, and that has helped the Chargers significantly.
While San Diego has blown a number of fourth-quarter leads this year, Gordon has run for 838 yards and nine touchdowns. Some analysts may point to his 3.9 yards per carry mark and downgrade him, but that's a further example of the aggressiveness he has shown this year. He wants the ball on all occasions, and he has helped the Chargers grow into the eighth-ranked offensive team in the league.
Gordon is also a viable pass-receiver who has caught 33 passes for 346 yards and two more touchdowns. We like him to have a big day against a Houston Texans defense that is likely to be fatigued and not in the best frame of mind after blowing a fourth-quarter lead Monday night against the Oakland Raiders.
Could Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi do it again and break through the 200-yard mark for the third time this season? It seems like a legitimate possibility as the Dolphins host the woebegone San Francisco 49ers in Week 12.
The Dolphins have turned their season around and have won five games in a row, and that reversal of fortune started in Week 6, when the Dolphins beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-15 and Ajayi ran for 204 yards.
Ajayi followed that with a 214-yard effort the following week against the Buffalo Bills, and he has rushed for 802 yards this season with six touchdowns and nine runs of 20 yards or more. Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus noted Ajayi's impressive after-contact production:
The 49ers have lost nine games in a row since opening the season with a victory over the Los Angeles Rams, and they rank 32nd against the run. Ajayi is going to torment the weary 49ers.
Tennessee Titans running back DeMarco Murray should also be in a position to succeed this week as the Titans go on the road to face the Chicago Bears.
Head coach John Fox has a mess on his hands in Chicago, as injuries and suspensions have riddled his team. Wideout Alshon Jeffery and linebacker Jerrell Freeman have been suspended for performance-enhancing drugs in each of the last two weeks (h/t ESPN.com's Jeff Dickerson).
Murray can take advantage of these suspensions because he is a dangerous, one-cut runner who combines power with speed. Freeman is the team's leading tackler with 91 stops, and his absence will hurt Chicago badly.
Murray reached the 1,000-yard mark in the Titans' Week 11 game at Indianapolis, and he has eight touchdowns. Murray is also a productive receiver with 40 catches for 268 yards and three touchdowns, and it may be difficult for the Bears to figure out how to slow him down—let alone stop him.
Look for a huge day from Murray as the Titans go on the road and assert their running game against a Chicago team that has fallen apart.
Wide Receivers
Now that the Pittsburgh Steelers have put an end to their four-game losing streak, a turnaround appears to be at hand for the most dangerous-appearing offensive team in the league.
Start with wide receiver Antonio Brown, who is clearly among the top three receivers in football (along with Julio Jones of the Falcons and Odell Beckham Jr. of the New York Giants). Brown gets to exploit the 30th-ranked defense of the Colts on Thanksgiving night, and he should be able to add to his statistics in an impressive manner.
Brown has already caught 77 passes for 907 yards and seven touchdowns, and he can seemingly get open against the best defensive teams anytime he feels like it.
The Colts are among the worst defensive teams in the league, and Brown should be able to assert himself early as the Steelers light up the scoreboard.
If the Colts are unable to mount an attack of their own and hold on to the football, the Steelers could hit the 40-point mark. That is a distinct possibility since Colts QB Andrew Luck is in the concussion protocol, per Stephen Holder of IndyStar.com.
We already mentioned Jones and Beckham, and we like both of them this week.
While Jones is facing a strong defense as the Cardinals come to Atlanta, the team is likely to be distracted as the Cardinals are coming off a loss to the Minnesota Vikings, and head coach Bruce Arians is coming out of the hospital, per John Breech of CBS Sports.
The Cardinals were one of the most respected teams in the NFC at the start of the season, but they have fallen short since the beginning, and they bring a 4-5-1 record with them into Atlanta.
The Falcons are coming off their bye week, so look for quarterback Matt Ryan to come out firing and put the Arizona defense on its heels right from the start.
The Cardinals have the top-ranked pass defense in the league, but Jones is the kind of player who responds to a challenge. He had a 300-yard receiving game against the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers, and he will have a powerful game here.
Jones has caught 61 passes for 1,105 yards and five touchdowns through 10 games.
Beckham goes up against the lowly Cleveland Browns, and his New York Giants have won five games in a row.
The Giants are a much-improved team and find ways to win, but they have their own weaknesses, and they will almost certainly lose more games as the season moves along. However, they won't lose against the winless Browns and their 31st-ranked defense.
Beckham is simply too good for this team, and he will easily add to his totals against Cleveland. Beckham has caught 59 passes for 819 yards and six touchdowns, and we expect him to get into the end zone at least twice.
Tight Ends
Under normal circumstances, every fantasy expert in the business would offer up New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski as he prepares to go up against the New York Jets. However, these are not normal circumstances since Gronkowski did not play against the 49ers as a result of a chest injury.
The Patriots are rolling along, and there's no reason for head coach Bill Belichick to rush Gronk back into the lineup. That does not mean he won't play here; it just means we don't know what Belichick will do until he does it.
The best tight end to go with this week is Jordan Reed of the Washington Redskins. Reed has become one of the top tight ends in the league, and with the Redskins going to Dallas to take on the streaking Cowboys, look for Reed to come up with his best game of the year.
Reed has already caught 49 passes for 535 yards and three touchdowns, and we don't see the Cowboys doing anything to stop the tight end. They will try to slow down Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and the Washington ground game, and Reed will have a big day.
So will Jimmy Graham of the Seattle Seahawks. The confidence on that team appears to be growing, and Seattle's Week 10 win at New England was the catalyst for the team's growth.
That game told every player in the locker room that the team was capable of winning under any circumstances.
The Seahawks are on the road in Week 12 at Tampa Bay, and Graham will torch the 26th-ranked Tampa Bay defense.
Waiver Wire
Seahawks running back C.J. Prosise justified fantasy owners' faith in him last week when he exploded for a 72-yard touchdown run against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11. However, he suffered a shoulder injury shortly thereafter, and that means the Seahawks have to turn to Thomas Rawls for the bulk of their running game.
Rawls can be a productive runner, but the top waiver-wire running back pickup this week is Robert Kelley of the Redskins. Kelley was razor-sharp in running for 137 yards and three touchdowns against the porous Green Bay Packers.
Kelley appears to be in an excellent position to follow up on his Week 11 performance against the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. He has been added to 29.5 percent of fantasy rosters over the last week, according to ESPN.com.
The top quarterback pickup on the waiver wire is Marcus Mariota. The second-year Tennessee signal-caller has made steady improvement, and he has been added to 12.3 percent of rosters in the last seven days, according to ESPN.com.
Since the Titans are facing the slumping Bears, look for Mariota to have a big day in Chicago.
Following the supposition that the Bears defense is quite vulnerable given the team's circumstances, fantasy owners are also in wide receiver Rishard Matthews' corner. Matthews caught nine passes for 122 yards against the Colts last week, and he has been added to 25.1 percent of fantasy rosters in the last week.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
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