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There isn't much time left to improve your team. The time for trades is upon us.
If you are struggling but could still make the playoffs, you should take some risks. If you have a strong team near the top of the standings, look to make smaller deals to round out your depth at thin positions. And, of course, if you can get top players on the cheap, go for it.
You may not need to make any trades at all. But don't be complacent. Explore every possibility. Nothing will end with a bit of humble pie more than resting on your laurels because you're convinced your team is so good you don't need to do a thing.
So with that in mind, let's take a look at this week's trade value chart. As always, the chart is a guide to give you a general sense of how you should be valuing players. Obviously, your individual team needs and opinions on certain players may cause your own values to vary.
You may be looking at the trade values and wondering why Matt Ryan—the leading scorer in all of fantasy football—is ranked as the No. 4 quarterback and the 41st-most valuable trade asset overall.
So let's break it down.
For starters, Matt Ryan didn't have a bye week in the first 10 weeks. Every other quarterback on the chart outside of Marcus Mariota (more on him to come) has either had a bye or missed time to an injury or suspension (Tom Brady).
In other words, Ryan almost assuredly won't be the top-ranked player after this week.
But he's also become a bit inconsistent. In three of his last six games, he's posted 14 or fewer fantasy points. He's somewhat balanced that out by scoring 21 or more points in the other weeks in that span, but consider the numbers of the players who are now ranked above him in my trade value chart:
- Tom Brady: Was averaging 25.5 points in his first four games this season before a talented Seattle defense held him to 10 fantasy points last week.
- Aaron Rodgers: Averaging 26.7 fantasy points in his last four games.
- Drew Brees: At least 20 fantasy points in five straight games.
Ryan remains a solid option for owners. But he isn't quite valuable enough to crack the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks.
Mariota keeps increasing his value, meanwhile, and one reason is his remarkable consistency in the red zone.
According to Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com: "Mariota has a 116.3 passer rating, with 30 touchdown passes, no interceptions, a completion percentage of 65.4 and has taken just two sacks [in the red zone]. Those trump his numbers on the rest of the field: An 81.2 rating, 10 TDs, 18 interceptions, a 62.7 percentage and 50 sacks."
He also continues to trend up for fantasy owners. Over the first four weeks of the season, he averaged 10.7 fantasy points per week. In his next six games, however, he's averaged 24 points per game.
The Titans have finally built an offensive system under which Mariota can thrive, it would seem. He's a QB1 the rest of the way and an enticing trade target if you don't want to pay top dollar for a quarterback.
Meanwhile, over in Seattle it appears that Russell Wilson is back at full strength and, finally, producing like a QB1 again. In the past two weeks, he's produced a total of 51 fantasy points, but more importantly, he's looked mobile and has been extending plays and beating defenses with his legs and his arm.
In turn, Doug Baldwin is coming off a three-touchdown performance.
If any of this seems familiar, it should. Last season, Baldwin averaged 8.7 points in his first eight contests and 17.6 points over his last eight games. Wilson, meanwhile, was more consistent throughout the season, but be never scored fewer than 18 fantasy points in the last seven weeks and scored at least 25 points in that stretch five times.
Is that any guarantee that Wilson and Baldwin are going to get that hot down the stretch this year? No. But it is a reminder of their ceilings, and likely an indication that a healthy Wilson should not only have a major fantasy impact down the stretch, but should bolster Baldwin's stock as well.
In other words, buy low while you still can.
If you want Wilson, players like Travis Kelce or Terrance West, straight up, might land you the quarterback. You may have to pay a bit more for Baldwin after his three-touchdown performance. But either player is a bargain given their incredibly high ceilings.
Cleveland Browns running back Isaiah Crowell has slumped a bit in the past two weeks with a combined 27 rushing yards and just 11 fantasy points. The Browns might do their part to end that slump, however, per Mary Kay Cabot of Cleveland.com:
In other words, don't abandon ship on Crowell just yet.
Likewise, don't expect huge things from Dion Lewis upon his return. Bill Belichick was candid—well, for him—in tempering expectations for the running back as he eases back into action, per Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:
I think any time a player is coming back from missing a significant amount of time, there’s a certain buildup process. Sometimes that accelerates, sometimes it doesn’t, sometimes it just stays on a straight-line course. It’s hard to predict how that’s going to go.
There’s a big difference between training and playing football. You can run around a track, run up and down a hill, do 10,000 pushups and all of that. I mean, that’s great, but that’s not being out there with 21 other guys playing football. Football is football. Training is an important part and component of being ready to play football, but playing football is playing football. Especially at this time of year where you’re halfway through the season and teams have quite a bit of scheme in, both us and our opponents, we’re not just looking at kind of some basic stuff like in the beginning or the year or in preseason, which is what preseason is. It’s very basic. We’re at a whole different point, so how does that get acclimated, what’s the right time, what’s the right... It’s a little bit of a feel situation. We just keep going. We’ll see.
That's about as much as you'll ever hear Belichick say on any topic, especially when the reality of the situation is simply that the Pats don't need to rush Lewis back into the mix because James White has more than adequately handled the scatback role and LeGarrette Blount is having his best season as a professional.
Let's finish this week's article with a different topic, albeit one that has been a major storyline throughout the 2016 season: Allen Robinson.
The Jacksonville Jaguars has been one of the flops of the fantasy season, though there might be a light at the end of this tunnel. In the past two weeks, Robinson has accumulated 16 receptions for 183 yards, two touchdowns and 31 total fantasy points.
Is the Robinson who was one of fantasy's best wideouts returning?
Considering that he has at least six receptions for 70 or more yards in three straight weeks, it would appear so. He's still a bargain, given his inconsistent season, and the following types of deals may land you a player with WR1 upside down the stretch:
- Dak Prescott and Kyle Rudolph (Obviously, this is only the sort of deal you should make if you have solid depth at both quarterback and tight end.)
- Golden Tate and Darren Sproles
- Jarvis Landry and Duke Johnson
- Giovani Bernard and Cameron Brate
If you don't think Robinson will return to his 2015 form down the stretch, obviously those aren't great trades. But if you think he can retain his elite status, they are steals.
You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter. All points-against and fantasy stats via ESPN.com standard-scoring leagues.
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
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