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Believe it or not, we're already approaching the end of the first month of the 2016 season. Three full weeks of NFL action are in the books, and Week 4 is only days away.
This, of course, means that fantasy owners only have a couple of days to analyze rosters, submit waiver claims and prepare for the next round of action. Things kick off on Thursday night when the Cincinnati Bengals host the Miami Dolphins.
Though it's still early in the season, we've seen enough over the first three weeks to recognize some playing patterns and fantasy truths. That Minnesota Vikings defense, for example, is a fantasy must-start, even if it's going against a dynamic quarterback like Cam Newton. Rookie Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz is more than just a curiosity—he's becoming a legitimate fantasy quarterback.
We're going to take what we've learned thus far in 2016 and apply it to the upcoming week of fantasy football. We'll be providing rankings and advice regarding rising and falling players for each fantasy position. Our choices are based on factors such as player performance, matchup and health.
Quarterbacks
Up: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
One thing that we know for certain after three weeks of football is that the Chicago Bears are banged up and lacking talent on the defensive side of the ball. This creates an ideal matchup for Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has been tossing passes all over the field this season.
Through three games, Stafford already has 985 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Just last week against the Green Bay Packers, he threw for 385 yards with three scores and one pick.
Chicago is ranked 10th in pass defense (214.3 yards per game allowed), but this statistic is misleading. Opponents have been protecting a lead against the Bears virtually all season and have chosen to gash Chicago on the ground—Chicago is ranked 30th in run defense (142.7 yards per game allowed) and 23rd in scoring defense (27.7 points allowed per game).
With starting running back Ameer Abdullah sidelined, expect the Lions to frequently utilize short passes in lieu of the running game. Also expect Stafford to capitalize with a strong day.
Down: Eli Manning, New York Giants
When the 2016 season started, we expected New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning to be set for a huge fantasy campaign. He has one of the top wide receivers in the game at his disposal in Odell Beckham Jr. and has a revived Victor Cruz and rookie Sterling Shepard in the mix.
Manning has racked up the yardage—925 yards in three games—but he hasn't exactly been a scoring machine. He has four touchdown passes and four turnovers so far and hasn't shown the same chemistry with Beckham that he had in 2015.
Manning is still worth a start in most weeks, but not this one. He's going up against a Vikings unit that has given opponents fits dating back to last season.
Tom Pelissero of USA Today recently explained just how good the Vikings defense has been:
Dating to last December, the Vikings have held seven consecutive opponents to 17 points or fewer, and they’ve faced some excellent quarterbacks in that stretch: Eli Manning, Russell Wilson, [Aaron] Rodgers twice and now Newton, the reigning NFL MVP who seemed beat up and beaten down once coach Mike Zimmer’s crew was done with him.
If you can find an alternative to Manning this week, do it.
Running Backs
Up: Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints may have received a beatdown from the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night, but no blame should be placed on running back Mark Ingram. He was stellar.
Ingram finished the game with 77 yards rushing and a 5.1 yards-per-carry average. He also added four receptions for 30 yards and a touchdown. Had the Saints not spent the vast majority of the night behind on the scoreboard, Ingram might have had an even bigger game.
This week, he draws a favorable matchup against the San Diego Chargers. Pro Football Focus rates the Chargers just 19th in run defense. Expect the Saints to be involved in a closer game in Week 4 and to give Ingram a hefty workload—both in the running and passing games.
Down: Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams
So Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley finally got into the end zone in Week 3, and he did so twice. This means the 2015 rookie phenom is back to fantasy stardom and a must-start, right? Well, not so fast.
Gurley had a strong fantasy game because of those two scores, but he wasn't especially effective. He only averaged 3.1 yards per carry against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and is averaging 2.9 yards per carry on the season. As Gurley recently explained, this is probably because opposing defenses are focused on stopping him.
“It’s been crazy,” Gurley said last week, per Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times. “I’m like, ‘There’s 12 people on the field!’ It’s definitely a lot of people.”
Things aren't likely to get any easier this week when the Rams travel to face the Arizona Cardinals. You can start Gurley and hope that he scores a cheap touchdown, but don't expect him to have a huge game.
Wide Receivers
Up: Mike Wallace, Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Mike Wallace cooled off in Week 3 against the Jacksonville Jaguars—just three receptions for 34 yards—but he is still a major deep threat. His 166 yards and three touchdowns on 10 receptions this season should indicate this.
Wallace will have a chance to get back on track and to potentially have a huge game this week against the Oakland Raiders.
Oakland has been absolutely gashed through the air so far this season. Though the team was better against the Tennessee Titans in Week 3, no team has given up more yards through the air through the first three games (340 yards per game on average).
Oakland hasn't been especially effective rushing the passer, either—Pro Football Focus rates the Raiders 25th in pass rush. If Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has time in the pocket this week, he'll have a chance to find Wallace deep.
Down: Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant finally had a 100-yard game in Week 2, and he finally scored a touchdown in Week 3. Still, he hasn't been a dominant fantasy receiver this year, even though rookie quarterback Dak Prescott is playing well.
Prescott doesn't seem to have the same kind of chemistry with Bryant that he has with fellow wideout Cole Beasley and tight end Jason Witten.
In addition, Bryant suffered a knee injury against the Bears on Sunday night. Though he returned to the game and the injury doesn't appear serious, the Cowboys are awaiting MRI results.
Given the San Francisco 49ers are a pretty strong team against the pass—Pro Football Focus rates them third in coverage through Week 3—expect the Cowboys to come out with a run-oriented game plan.
We're not saying Bryant isn't worth a start, but we don't expect him to be as productive as he has been over the past couple of weeks.
Tight Ends
Up: Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers tight end Greg Olsen is still one of the biggest pieces of the team's offense and one of the top tight ends in the game—even at 31 years of age.
Olsen has continued to chug along this season, racking up 18 receptions for 259 yards and a touchdown through three weeks. Expect him to continue being a focal point of the passing game in Week 4, where he gets to face an inconsistent Falcons defense.
This Atlanta defense just gave up 109 yards and a touchdown to Saints tight end Coby Fleener. Expect Olsen to have a big day.
Down: Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski made his 2016 debut in Week 3, but he only played sparingly and finished the game without a reception. Though we expect Gronkowski to finally see some production this week, we're not sure how much.
Quarterback Tom Brady is still suspended, and Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy Garoppolo are both injured. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, though, the Patriots are confident that one of their eligible quarterbacks will start:
We can't possibly consider ignoring Gronkowski if he plays, but he's risky. He has no real chemistry with either Brissett or Garoppolo, and he doesn't appear back to 100 percent health. Martellus Bennett is likely to remain the desirable Patriots tight end this week.
Kickers
Defense/Special Teams
Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com
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