Fantasy Football Week 3: Examining Trade Value for This Year's Top 100 Players

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In fantasy football, I normally live by a pretty simple rule when ascribing value for players who seem to be blowing up all of the sudden:

  • One great (or terrible) game may be a fluke.
  • Two great (or terrible) games in a row mean a player is worth further exploring and analyzing.
  • Three great (or terrible) games in a row are a trend and likely indicative of that player's future potential worth.

Of course, heading into Week 3, we are still on the second week of analysis with many players, so my trade values aren't going to change too drastically from last week—or from my draft rankings from before the season.

But we will take a look at a few players trending up or down and try to establish whether their current forms will be the norm or if they'll normalize going forward. 

Running back remains fantasy football's most combustible position. And perhaps the most pressing question in all of fantasy at the moment is a big one: What to make of Todd Gurley?

The Los Angeles Rams' second-year star running back was a top-five pick in most leagues, but he's mustered just 98 rushing yards on 36 carries, adding two receptions for 14 yards. The workload is a positive—despite a floundering offense, the Rams aren't shying away from getting him the ball, as he's averaging 19 touches a game—but the horrendous quarterback play and the lack of many other dynamic weapons mean teams are keying on Gurley.

Indeed, the Rams have scored just nine points total in two games, and neither Case Keenum nor Jared Goff is striking fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators. In turn, teams can stack the box against the Rams, keeping Gurley from getting untracked.

That surely has fantasy owners worried, though the Rams aren't as concerned, as Keenum told Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com:

Todd is going to get going. It's Todd. Just continue to operate how we are. I think the passing game and running game are going to complement each other. I think we are doing a good job of marrying some of those plays. I'm excited to see him continue to go because I know he's hungry. I thought he played well [Sunday]. We're going to rely on him a lot moving forward.

I tend to side with Keenum on this one. Gurley is too talented to be held in check all season long, and he may get going against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team already allowing 19.5 fantasy points to opposing running backs per week (27th in the NFL). 

If Gurley can't get it going against the Bucs, feel free to begin panicking.

I might be panicking when it comes to players like Eddie Lacy, Arian Foster, Devonta Freeman and Thomas Rawls, however. 

  • Lacy: Quite simply, he hasn't played well. Twelve fantasy points in two games isn't exactly desirable.
  • Foster: He can't stay healthy.
  • Freeman: Tevin Coleman is going to steal snaps and touches from him all season long. Freeman has been given 32 touches and turned them into 13 fantasy points. Coleman has been given 27 touches and produced 23 fantasy points. Coleman isn't going away, folks.
  • Rawls: Injuries have plagued him early in the season, and Christine Michael (25 carries for 126 yards) has looked better anyway.

I wouldn't recommend trading these guys away, since their values are super low, but I'd hesitate to trade for any of them outside of Lacy, either, since he's the only player to this point who isn't being hampered either by injury concerns or a timeshare situation.

But running back hasn't been all doom and gloom. A few players—namely Melvin Gordon, C.J. Anderson, DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, Isaiah Crowell and LeGarrette Blount—have been revelations. 

So, which of these players can sustain their good fortunes?

Gordon is a mixed bag. On one hand, 52 percent of his fantasy points this season have come from his three touchdowns. He's currently on pace to reach the end zone 24 times. That obviously isn't sustainable.

On the other hand, with Danny Woodhead's recent ACL tear, Gordon is now potentially going to see even more touches and a bigger workload. Gordon already has 41 touches after two weeks. It's safe to assume he'll be getting right around 20 or more touches a game going forward.

Anderson, meanwhile, is going to be Denver's workhorse. The Broncos aren't going to throw the ball as often or as successfully as they did a few years back with Peyton Manning. Anderson's 40 carries for 166 yards and two touchdowns on the ground aren't a fluke—he's poised for a big year.

Murray may eventually end up losing more touches to rookie Derrick Henry, but for now, he's the team's starting running back and is producing. He's worth monitoring due to the presence of Henry, but Murray seems trustworthy for now.

If you believe Henry will eventually earn a more even split of the playing time, however, here are some fair returns for Murray:

Forte has been excellent his entire career and is on a better offense with the New York Jets than he had last year in Chicago. He's also worth monitoring for the wear and tear on his 30-year-old body, but he's shown little sign of slowing down just yet and looks like a safe RB1.

Cleveland can't keep its quarterbacks healthy, so Crowell is worrisome, if only because teams probably aren't going to fear Cody Kessler and will stack the box. Crowell has been inconsistent in his career, as well, so don't overvalue him just yet.

Matt Camp of Bleacher Report agrees:

And then there's Blount, who has been awesome for the Patriots but will probably be fed the rock less regularly once quarterback Tom Brady and tight end Rob Gronkowski return and the Pats rely more heavily on the passing game. He's a solid RB2 for now, but things may change for Blount come Week 5.

As for the other positions, the player of the week was Stefon Diggs, who continues to thrive in Minnesota. 

"He's just kind of one of those guys," Diggs' new quarterback, Sam Bradford, told Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune after the Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers. "When I first got here and started watching tape, he just kind of popped. You just kind of notice him. He's always getting separation, he seems to always be finding a way to get open. Then tonight, he was pretty much unstoppable out there tonight."

Indeed, his numbers on the year are staggering—16 catches for 285 yards and a touchdown. 

More importantly, Diggs has looked polished, already seems to have an excellent rapport with Bradford—who has only been with the team for a few weeks—and doesn't have a real threat in Minnesota to take targets away from him. Plus, with Adrian Peterson out of commission, the team may turn to the passing game with more regularity.

Diggs is for real. If he's somehow available in your league, claim him. And it can't hurt to float a lowball offer to a fantasy owner in your league who had the foresight to draft him.

   

You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter. All points against and fantasy stats via ESPN.

Read more NFL news on BleacherReport.com

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