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Wait. That's the counsel you'll often hear when it comes to drafting quarterbacks in fantasy football.
We've witnessed an interesting shift in the disparity between the real and fantasy football markets over the past several seasons. As one of the rarest commodities in the league, starting quarterbacks are more important and precious than ever in the real NFL, but in fantasy football, the position has been devalued. In the NFL, the franchise tag for quarterbacks is nearly 30 percent higher than the next-closest position, per ESPN.com.
It's just the application of basic economic principles. The majority of fantasy football leagues are comprised of either 10 or 12 teams, lessening the burden on the market to supply starting-caliber talent at the position. Simply put, the quarterback position has been devalued due to the fact that the vast majority of fantasy leagues ask managers to start one signal-caller per week, as opposed to the 32 the NFL demands.
This isn't to say quarterbacks aren't important in fantasy football; they are. Last season saw the Carolina Panthers' Cam Newtown deliver MVP-worthy production in both real and imaginary football, as his 23.3 fantasy points per game in ESPN standard leagues were tops for the year and stand as the sixth-best season at the position since 2001.
The reason Newton's season was so beneficial to his fantasy investors was the massive profit margin his production provided in 2015, as he was drafted at pick 116 on average, per Fantasy Football Calculator, as the 15th quarterback off the board. Newton is now going at pick 28 as the top signal-caller in fantasy this summer, a massive shift in market appeal. Even if Newton delivers another stellar campaign, the potential for profit has diminished.
JJ Zachariason of numberFire explained his take on the position:
Fantasy football is a supply and demand-driven game. Forget fantasy points and scoring for a second and focus on roster construction. You’re starting double – sometimes triple – the amount of running backs and wide receivers as you are quarterbacks and tight ends. You need players at those positions more. There’s a reason average draft position data, each year, show those two positions being selected repeatedly at the beginning of drafts. It’s not because they’re fun or easy to predict – it’s because they’re necessary.
While quarterback is the single-most important position on a football field, it’s not in fantasy. This supply and demand way of thinking shows just that – there’s a ripple effect that spreads to so many areas of fantasy football because the demand for the quarterback position is so inherently small.
This isn't to suggest you can't succeed by investing in the elite tier at the position. You can. Each league plays host to a unique marketplace, so getting Newton in the fourth or fifth round in a patient market can still present value, but the general late-round QB assessment highlights the idea of a single position in the context of all skill positions at running back and wide receiver, where we deploy more players and should be willing to leverage more risk and draft capital.
The real goal for investors this season should be to source the next massive profit at the position, not to pay for the supposed cost certainty of a star commodity.
To succinctly offer an example of this pitch, Newton averaged 30 percent more fantasy points per game in ESPN standard leagues as the top fantasy quarterback last season than the 12th quarterback in per-game output, the Washington Redskins' Kirk Cousins. The 12th quarterback can be considered replacement level for our purposes, meaning we can assume 12 teams and 12 starting fantasy arms in an average-sized league. At running back, Devonta Freeman of the Atlanta Falcons averaged 66 percent more points per game than the 24th tailback, the New England Patriots' LeGarrette Blount. With more demand for the tailback position, lack of supply is now of paramount concern.
With this market theory established, join us in discussing our rankings at quarterback as we canvas the position for studs, sleepers and risks heading into the new campaign.
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